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Climate Risk Assessment: Carrum, VIC

Carrum, Victoria· Kingston· 3197
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Carrum faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and coastal hazards. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are key concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
2.8
Heat
5.5
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carrum

increasing

Flood

65/100

Carrum faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

28/100

Bushfire risk in Carrum is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

55/100

Carrum is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The increasing average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Carrum is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. The low-lying coastal areas are particularly at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carrum

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Carrum is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The increasing average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Carrum faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Carrum is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. The low-lying coastal areas are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

28/100

Bushfire risk in Carrum is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood history of the property.
  • 2.Assess coastal erosion risk.
  • 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
  • 4.Evaluate energy efficiency of the building.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Patterson River
Elevation Range
0-5 meters
Flood Zone
Likely

Carrum is located near the Patterson River and Port Phillip Bay, increasing its flood exposure.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km
Planning Overlay
Not applicable
Bushfire Prone Area
No

The area has limited bushland, reducing bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.1 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Patterson River catchment, impacting Carrum.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Melbourne, including Carrum, causing health concerns.

Source
2018
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to properties in Carrum.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Carrum.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.2(+0.7)8.0(+1.5)
bushfire283.0(+0.2)3.3(+0.5)
heat556.1(+0.6)6.8(+1.3)
coastal606.8(+0.8)7.8(+1.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Carrum will experience increased flooding and coastal erosion risks. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Carrum's Climate Risk Profile

Carrum, a coastal suburb in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves. Sea level rise and more intense rainfall events are expected to exacerbate these issues.

The suburb's low-lying coastal geography makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from both heavy rainfall and storm surges. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing a significant threat to property and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent periods of extreme heat expected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Coastal erosion is another significant threat, with sea level rise and increased storm activity potentially leading to the loss of land and damage to coastal infrastructure. Addressing these challenges will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and other stakeholders.

Adaptation measures, such as improved drainage systems, coastal protection works, and heatwave preparedness plans, are essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change in Carrum. Raising awareness and promoting community resilience are also crucial steps in preparing for a changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Victorian State Emergency Service · Kingston City Council

Local Government Resources

Kingston City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Carrum?

The main risks are flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves, driven by sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

Kingston City Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans, including drainage upgrades and coastal protection measures.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Are there any flood maps available for Carrum?

Yes, flood maps are available on the Kingston City Council website.

How will climate change affect property values in Carrum?

Properties closer to the coast may experience price reductions due to increased flood and erosion risks.

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