Climate Risk in Cobungra, VIC

Cobungra, Victoria· Alpine· 3741
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Cobungra faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Cobungra

increasing

Flood

65/100

Cobungra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Cobungra River and associated creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to rapid river rises and localised flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Cobungra is located in a high bushfire risk area due to its proximity to heavily forested areas. The risk is exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds, particularly during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Cobungra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Cobungra is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Cobungra

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Cobungra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Cobungra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Cobungra River and associated creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to rapid river rises and localised flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Cobungra is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Cobungra is located in a high bushfire risk area due to its proximity to heavily forested areas. The risk is exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds, particularly during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check for flood and bushfire risk assessments.
  • 2.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
  • 3.Assess property resilience to extreme weather events.
  • 4.Understand local council climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cobungra River
Elevation Range
800-1200m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Cobungra River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that the Cobungra River has a history of overflowing during periods of heavy rainfall. Recent infrastructure upgrades aim to mitigate some of this risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Immediately adjacent to extensive bushland.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) applies to many properties in Cobungra.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Cobungra is located in a designated bushfire-prone area, requiring specific building standards and property maintenance practices to reduce fire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average maximum temperature in January is increasing, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires impacted the region surrounding Cobungra, causing significant damage to forests and properties.

Source
2012
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Cobungra River to flood, inundating low-lying areas and disrupting transport.

Source
2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires had a devastating impact on Victoria, with Cobungra experiencing extreme fire danger conditions.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2013 resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased health risks for vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)7.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire808.6(+0.6)9.0(+1.0)9.0(+1.0)9.5(+1.5)
heat606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)6.8(+0.8)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Cobungra is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with bushfire risk increasing more significantly than other hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire, including designated escape routes and emergency supplies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Bushfire Protection

Near-term

Install ember guards on windows and doors, clear vegetation around your home, and ensure your roof and gutters are well-maintained.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Install flood barriers, raise electrical outlets, and seal walls to protect your home from flood damage.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install a Rainwater Tank

Long-term

Collect rainwater for non-potable uses, such as gardening and toilet flushing, to reduce reliance on mains water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Participate in Community Climate Action

Long-term

Join local groups and initiatives that are working to address climate change and build community resilience.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Cobungra's Climate Risk Profile

Cobungra is a small town in the Victorian Alps, surrounded by vast forests and rugged terrain. This unique environment makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Bushfire risk is a major concern, with the potential for devastating fires during dry summers. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves also pose a threat to the health and well-being of residents.

Flooding is another significant risk, with the Cobungra River and its tributaries prone to overflowing during heavy rainfall events. Changes in land use and aging infrastructure can further exacerbate this risk. It is crucial for residents to be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.

The local council is working to address these challenges through various climate adaptation strategies. These include improving bushfire management practices, upgrading flood defenses, and promoting energy efficiency. However, individual action is also essential to protect homes and families from the impacts of climate change.

Preparing for climate change in Cobungra requires a multi-faceted approach. This includes staying informed about weather forecasts and warnings, maintaining properties to reduce fire and flood risk, and supporting community efforts to build resilience. By working together, residents can help to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for Cobungra.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Alpine Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Cobungra?

Cobungra is primarily at risk from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home by clearing vegetation around the property, installing ember guards, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, it is important to stay informed about warnings, evacuate if necessary, and avoid driving through floodwaters.

How can I reduce my carbon footprint in Cobungra?

You can reduce your carbon footprint by using energy-efficient appliances, reducing your reliance on cars, and supporting local sustainable businesses.

What is the Alpine Shire Council doing to address climate change?

The Alpine Shire Council is implementing various climate adaptation strategies, including improving bushfire management, upgrading flood defenses, and promoting energy efficiency.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Cobungra?

You can find more information about climate change in Cobungra on the Alpine Shire Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections