Climate Risk Profile: Coburg, VIC

Coburg, Victoria· Moreland· 3058
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Coburg faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its flood vulnerability, while rising temperatures exacerbate heat risks, especially for vulnerable residents.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
2.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Coburg

increasing

Flood

65/100

Coburg faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek. Intense rainfall events can cause these waterways to overflow, impacting low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
stable

Bushfire

20/100

The risk of bushfire in Coburg is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, parks and reserves can still pose a minor risk during dry periods.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to parks and reserves
  • ·Dry vegetation in summer
increasing

Heat

70/100

Coburg is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coburg is located inland and does not face any direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Coburg

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Coburg is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Coburg faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek. Intense rainfall events can cause these waterways to overflow, impacting low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coburg is located inland and does not face any direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

20/100

The risk of bushfire in Coburg is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, parks and reserves can still pose a minor risk during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to parks and reserves
  • ·Dry vegetation in summer

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.2

2050

2.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Merri Creek
Elevation Range
40-70m
Flood Zone
Areas along Merri Creek are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties along Merri Creek. Council provides flood maps and advice for residents.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km to larger bushland areas
Planning Overlay
No specific bushfire overlay applies to the entire suburb, but some areas near parks may have restrictions.
Bushfire Prone Area
No

Check with the local council for specific fire restrictions in areas near parks and reserves.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1972
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred along Merri Creek, impacting low-lying areas of Coburg.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased heat-related illnesses in Coburg.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along Merri Creek after a period of heavy rainfall.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions put strain on vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire202.2(+0.2)2.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Coburg is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as an increased risk of flooding. The urban heat island effect will exacerbate heat stress, while heavier rainfall events will increase the likelihood of flooding along Merri Creek.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to better manage increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement urban greening initiatives

Immediate

Increase tree canopy cover and create green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Establish a comprehensive plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise community awareness

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and preparedness measures, including flood warnings and heat safety tips.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Retrofit homes for energy efficiency

Long-term

Encourage homeowners to improve insulation and install energy-efficient appliances to reduce energy consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Coburg's Climate Risk Profile

Coburg, located in metropolitan Melbourne, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks stem from flooding due to its proximity to Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek, and from heatwaves exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

Increased rainfall intensity is projected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding events. Urban development further compounds this risk by reducing permeable surfaces and increasing stormwater runoff. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and preparedness measures.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days pose a significant threat to public health, particularly for elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, further amplifies these risks.

While the risk of bushfire is relatively low, it is not negligible, especially in areas near parks and reserves. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fire hazards and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Coburg's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Moreland City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Coburg?

The main climate change risks in Coburg are flooding due to its proximity to Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek, and heatwaves exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

How can I prepare for a flood in Coburg?

Stay informed about flood warnings, develop a flood plan, and consider purchasing flood insurance. Elevate valuable items and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

What can I do to stay safe during a heatwave in Coburg?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is my property in Coburg at risk of flooding?

Check the council's flood maps to determine if your property is located in a flood-prone area. Properties near Merri Creek are at higher risk.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Coburg?

Moreland City Council has a climate action plan that includes initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find information about emergency services during a climate event?

The Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) website provides information about emergency services and preparedness measures.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections