Drouin East Climate Risk Profile

Drouin East, Victoria· Baw Baw Shire Council· 3818
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Drouin East in Victoria faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by moderate flood and bushfire threats. While coastal risks are negligible, residents should be aware of increasing heatwave intensity and the need for preparedness.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
5.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Drouin East

increasing

Flood

60/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas, with potential for increased intensity in future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Heavy rainfall events
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

50/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High fire danger days
increasing

Heat

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
stable

Coastal

10/100

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Drouin East

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas, with potential for increased intensity in future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Heavy rainfall events
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urbanisation increasing runoff

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

50/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High fire danger days
  • ·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Moderate to High premiums expected due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in high-risk zones.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Review current and future flood risk maps.
  • 2.Assess proximity to bushland and fire access routes.
  • 3.Check property's bushfire attack level (BAL).
  • 4.Investigate local stormwater drainage and potential overland flow paths.
  • 5.Understand local emergency service response times.
  • 6.Inquire about historical property damage from climate events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks and Drains
Elevation Range
50-150m above sea level
Flood Zone
Variable, some areas identified as low to medium risk

Risk is primarily from localised heavy rainfall and stormwater runoff, rather than major riverine flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to significant bushland and rural areas
Planning Overlay
Designated Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Vegetation types and fuel loads in surrounding areas contribute to the risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
4 days

Temperatures are projected to increase, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to localised flooding in low-lying areas of Drouin and surrounding districts, impacting roads and some properties.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires affected large parts of Victoria, with significant fire activity in the Gippsland region, highlighting the inherent risk to nearby communities.

Source
2016
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and damage across Gippsland, including Drouin East, with power outages reported.

Source
2021
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged period of high temperatures affected Victoria, including the Baw Baw Shire, leading to increased health risks and strain on infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Drouin East is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with moderate rises in flood, bushfire, and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Stormwater Management

Near-term

Enhance local drainage systems, implement permeable paving where possible, and promote rainwater harvesting to reduce localised flooding from intense rainfall.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Develop Community Bushfire Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Establish a clear community plan for bushfire events, including evacuation routes, communication strategies, and designated safe zones. Encourage individual property preparedness.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Identify vulnerable residents, establish cooling centres, and promote public awareness campaigns about heat stress prevention and management during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Vegetation Management and Fuel Reduction

Long-term

Undertake strategic vegetation management around residential areas and critical infrastructure to reduce fuel loads and bushfire intensity.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Promote Water-Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD)

Long-term

Integrate WSUD principles into new developments and retrofits to manage stormwater, improve water quality, and enhance landscape resilience.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

About Drouin East's Climate Risk Profile

Drouin East, located within the Shire of Baw Baw in Victoria, presents a mixed climate risk profile for its residents. The suburb experiences a medium overall risk, largely influenced by its susceptibility to flooding and bushfires. Understanding these specific hazards is crucial for effective risk mitigation and community resilience.

The flood risk in Drouin East is rated as moderate. This is primarily due to the suburb's topography, proximity to local waterways, and the potential for increased rainfall intensity associated with climate change. While not directly on a major river, localised flooding from intense storm events and runoff can impact properties, particularly in lower-lying areas. The trend indicates an increasing risk, necessitating proactive management of drainage systems and property-level flood defences.

Bushfire risk is also a significant consideration for Drouin East. The area is surrounded by vegetation and rural landscapes, placing it within a recognised bushfire-prone region. Historical fire activity in the broader Gippsland area underscores the importance of preparedness. With projected increases in dry periods and high fire danger days, the risk is expected to grow, requiring residents to maintain defensible space and have well-rehearsed fire plans.

Heatwaves pose a growing concern, with moderate risk levels projected to increase. As average temperatures rise and extreme heat events become more frequent and intense, vulnerable populations and infrastructure may be at risk. The urban environment, even in a semi-rural setting, can contribute to localised heat amplification, making cooling strategies and access to relief centres important.

In contrast, Drouin East is very distant from the coast, rendering coastal erosion and sea-level rise risks negligible. This aspect of climate change does not pose a direct threat to the suburb. However, the cumulative impact of other climate hazards requires a comprehensive approach to resilience planning and adaptation for the community.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · Victoria State Emergency Service (SES) · Baw Baw Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary flood risk in Drouin East?

The primary flood risk in Drouin East stems from localised heavy rainfall events and associated stormwater runoff, rather than major riverine flooding. Low-lying areas are more susceptible.

Is Drouin East considered a high-risk bushfire area?

Yes, Drouin East is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to surrounding bushland and rural vegetation. Residents should adhere to CFA guidelines for preparedness.

How will climate change affect heatwaves in Drouin East?

Climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves for Drouin East, meaning hotter days and longer periods of extreme heat are expected.

What actions can I take to prepare my property for bushfire?

Key actions include maintaining a defendable space around your home, clearing gutters and downpipes, having appropriate fire-fighting equipment, and developing a household fire plan.

Does Drouin East face any sea-level rise risks?

No, Drouin East is located far inland and does not face any direct risks from sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Where can I find the official flood maps for Drouin East?

Official flood maps for Drouin East can be found on the Baw Baw Shire Council website under their 'Flood Information' or 'Mapping' sections.

What is the role of the CFA in Drouin East?

The Country Fire Authority (CFA) is responsible for fire prevention, preparedness, and response, including bushfire mitigation and community education in Drouin East.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections