Climate Risk Profile: Ferntree Gully, VIC
Ferntree Gully faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk of bushfire. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of rainfall and the frequency of heat events. Residents should prepare for potential impacts and take steps to mitigate their vulnerability.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ferntree Gully
Flood
Ferntree Gully has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local creeks and stormwater runoff. Properties in low-lying areas are most vulnerable.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
Bushfire
Ferntree Gully faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Dandenong Ranges National Park. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing fire danger.
Key drivers:
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry summers
Heat
Ferntree Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations may be at risk during extreme heat events.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Coastal risk is negligible in Ferntree Gully due to its distance from the coastline.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability
Energy
Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ferntree Gully
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Ferntree Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations may be at risk during extreme heat events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.7
2050
5.1
flood Risk
Ferntree Gully has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local creeks and stormwater runoff. Properties in low-lying areas are most vulnerable.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.8
2050
5.2
coastal Risk
Coastal risk is negligible in Ferntree Gully due to its distance from the coastline.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Ferntree Gully faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Dandenong Ranges National Park. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing fire danger.
Primary Drivers
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry summers
- ·Strong winds
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.8
2050
6.9
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate-related risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
- 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Blind Creek
- Elevation Range
- 80-250m
- Flood Zone
- Areas near Blind Creek are designated as flood zones.
Local drainage infrastructure may be inadequate to handle increasingly intense rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to Dandenong Ranges National Park
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire Management Overlay applies to many properties.
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 27.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 2.1 days
Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 50 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Severe flooding occurred in Ferntree Gully following heavy rainfall, causing damage to homes and businesses near Blind Creek.
SourceThe Black Saturday bushfires impacted areas near Ferntree Gully, highlighting the region's vulnerability to extreme fire events.
SourceA severe storm caused widespread damage in Ferntree Gully, with fallen trees and power outages affecting many residents.
SourceA prolonged heatwave in January 2019 resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on local resources.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 45 | 4.6(+0.1) | 4.7(+0.2) | 4.7(+0.2) | 4.9(+0.4) |
| bushfire | 68 | 6.8 | 6.9(+0.1) | 6.9(+0.1) | 7.0(+0.2) |
| heat | 43 | 4.6(+0.3) | 4.9(+0.6) | 4.8(+0.5) | 5.5(+1.2) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under a moderate emissions scenario, Ferntree Gully is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, primarily driven by rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. Flood risk may also increase due to more intense rainfall events.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade local stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement a community bushfire preparedness program
ImmediateDevelop and implement a community-based bushfire preparedness program to educate residents about fire safety and evacuation procedures.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEstablish a heatwave early warning system
Near-termCreate a heatwave early warning system to alert vulnerable residents about impending heat events and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water-sensitive urban design
Long-termEncourage the use of water-sensitive urban design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport vulnerable residents during extreme weather
ImmediateProvide assistance to elderly, disabled, and low-income residents during heatwaves, floods, and bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Ferntree Gully's Climate Risk Profile
Ferntree Gully, located in the foothills of the Dandenong Ranges, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to bushland elevates the risk of bushfires, especially during dry summers with strong winds. Historical bushfire events have demonstrated the potential for significant property damage and community disruption.
Flooding is another concern, with local creeks and stormwater systems posing a threat during heavy rainfall events. Increased urban development has reduced permeable surfaces, exacerbating runoff and increasing flood risk in low-lying areas. Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity is likely to increase, further elevating flood risk.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Rising average temperatures are also contributing to increased energy demand for cooling, placing strain on the electricity grid.
While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, may still affect Ferntree Gully. Residents and businesses should take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions and build resilience to climate-related hazards.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV
Local Government Resources
Knox City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Ferntree Gully?
The main climate change risks in Ferntree Gully are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a higher risk of bushfires due to drier conditions.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?
You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining firebreaks, having a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous activity, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Ferntree Gully?
You can find information about flood risks in Ferntree Gully on the Knox City Council website, including flood maps and advice on how to protect your property.
Is Ferntree Gully a good place to invest in property considering climate change?
While Ferntree Gully has many positive attributes, potential property investors should carefully consider the climate change risks, particularly the potential for increased insurance premiums and the impact on property values in high-risk areas. Conduct thorough due diligence and seek professional advice.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
Knox City Council has a climate strategy in place that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and build community resilience to climate change impacts. Visit the council website for more information.
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