Climate Risk in Frankston, VIC
Frankston faces increasing risks from heatwaves, coastal erosion, and flooding due to climate change. Sea level rise and more intense rainfall events are key drivers of these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Frankston is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem in built-up areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
flood Risk
Frankston faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Kananook Creek and Port Phillip Bay. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Coastal erosion and sea level rise are significant threats to Frankston's foreshore. Low-lying areas are vulnerable to inundation during storm surges.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Frankston is relatively low compared to other parts of Victoria, but some areas near bushland reserves are still vulnerable.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Hot and windy conditions
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
3.2
2050
3.5
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase in areas at high risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
Price Impact
Properties in vulnerable locations may experience a decrease in value due to climate risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
- 4.Obtain a building inspection report to identify potential climate-related risks.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Kananook Creek
- Elevation Range
- 0-30 meters
- Flood Zone
- Areas near Kananook Creek and Port Phillip Bay
Historical flood events have impacted properties along Kananook Creek. Council maintains drainage infrastructure but capacity is being tested by increased rainfall intensity.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Up to 2km from reserves
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) in some areas
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Areas bordering reserves like the Frankston Nature Conservation Reserve are considered bushfire prone. Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 27.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3.2 days
Frankston experiences several days above 35°C each summer. The urban heat island effect can increase temperatures by several degrees in built-up areas.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 0.5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Low-lying areas along the foreshore are exposed to sea level rise.
- Erosion Risk
- Moderate erosion risk along some sections of the coastline.
Historical Climate Events
Major flooding event impacted Frankston and surrounding areas after heavy rainfall.
SourceProlonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.
SourceDamaging winds and heavy rain caused power outages and property damage in Frankston.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 6.7(+0.2) | 7.0(+0.5) |
| bushfire | 3.0 | 3.1(+0.1) | 3.2(+0.2) |
| heat | 7.0 | 7.5(+0.5) | 7.8(+0.8) |
| coastal | 6.5 | 6.9(+0.4) | 7.2(+0.7) |
Under a moderate emissions scenario, Frankston is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030. Heatwaves and coastal erosion are expected to be the most significant challenges.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement coastal protection measures
Near-termConstruct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against erosion and sea level rise.
Est. cost: Very High
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave management plan
ImmediateEstablish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage residents and businesses to reduce water consumption to mitigate the impacts of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire preparedness programs
Near-termEducate residents on bushfire safety and assist with property preparation in bushfire prone areas.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Frankston's Climate Risk Profile
Frankston, a suburb of Melbourne, Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising global temperatures are contributing to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a significant risk to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. The urban heat island effect further exacerbates this issue in densely built-up areas of Frankston.
Coastal erosion and sea level rise are also major concerns for Frankston, given its location on the coast of Port Phillip Bay. Low-lying areas along the foreshore are at risk of inundation during storm surges, and the coastline is vulnerable to erosion. These changes threaten infrastructure, recreational areas, and natural habitats.
Furthermore, Frankston is susceptible to flooding from intense rainfall events. Kananook Creek and other waterways can overflow, causing flash flooding and riverine flooding in low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity due to climate change is expected to worsen this risk.
While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other Victorian regions, areas bordering bushland reserves still face some level of threat. It's important for residents in these areas to maintain firebreaks and be prepared for bushfire season. Addressing these climate risks requires proactive adaptation measures and community awareness.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES · Frankston City Council · Melbourne Water · CFA
Local Government Resources
Frankston City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Frankston?
The main climate change risks in Frankston are heatwaves, coastal erosion, flooding, and to a lesser extent, bushfire. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising global temperatures and sea levels.
How is Frankston City Council addressing climate change?
Frankston City Council has developed a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting water conservation.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Frankston?
During heatwaves, it's important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Frankston City Council may open cooling centers during extreme heat events.
How can I protect my property from flooding in Frankston?
If your property is in a flood-prone area, consider installing flood barriers, raising electrical appliances, and storing valuables above flood level. Check your insurance policy to ensure you have adequate flood cover.
Where can I find information about bushfire safety in Frankston?
The Country Fire Authority (CFA) website provides information about bushfire safety, including how to prepare your property and develop a bushfire survival plan. Frankston City Council also provides information on its website.
Is sea level rise a threat to Frankston?
Yes, sea level rise is a significant threat to Frankston's foreshore. Low-lying areas are at risk of inundation during storm surges, and the coastline is vulnerable to erosion. The council is working on coastal protection measures.
Get a Property-Specific Report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Frankston, use our analysis tool.
Analyse Your Property Now
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment covering flood, bushfire, and sea level rise and more.
Free instant preview · Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only