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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Gembrook, VIC

Gembrook, Victoria· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Gembrook faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk of bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire risk, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.0/10

Gembrook experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

4.0/10

Gembrook faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local creeks and heavy rainfall events. Properties near waterways are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Gembrook is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Gembrook has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily forested areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heat.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
280-350m
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
65 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, causing widespread destruction and loss of life.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas, affecting some properties.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave led to increased demand for emergency services and placed stress on vulnerable populations.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A severe storm caused power outages and minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.04.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
bushfire7.07.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
heat4.04.4(+0.4)4.8(+0.8)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Gembrook is projected to experience increased bushfire risk and more frequent heatwaves. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to a slightly higher flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and maintain a comprehensive bushfire survival plan, including clearing vegetation around properties and having an evacuation plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Home Hardening

Near-term

Retrofit homes with fire-resistant materials, such as metal roofing and ember guards, to reduce the risk of ignition during bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Flood Mitigation

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce flood risk, such as improving drainage systems and elevating vulnerable structures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves. Promote water conservation and energy efficiency.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Conduct regular community workshops and awareness campaigns to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Gembrook's Climate Risk Profile

Gembrook, Victoria, is a suburb that faces a range of climate-related risks. The most significant threat is bushfire, given its location surrounded by dense forests. Hot, dry summers combined with strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires, posing a considerable risk to properties and lives.

Flooding is another concern, with local creeks and heavy rainfall events capable of causing damage. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate these risks.

While Gembrook is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, can still affect the community. Proactive adaptation measures are essential to mitigate these risks and build a more resilient future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Cardinia Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Cardinia Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Gembrook?

Gembrook faces significant risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, install ember guards, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

The Cardinia Shire Council website provides information about flood risks and flood maps.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Cardinia Shire Council has a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.

Are there any community programs to help residents prepare for climate risks?

Yes, the council and local community groups offer workshops and resources to help residents prepare for bushfires, floods, and heatwaves.

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