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Climate Risk in Gisborne, Victoria

Gisborne, Victoria· Macedon Ranges· 3437
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Gisborne faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Gisborne

increasing

Flood

60/100

Gisborne faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Gisborne has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Gisborne is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Gisborne is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Gisborne

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Gisborne is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Gisborne faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Gisborne is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Gisborne has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on the property.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Jackson Creek
Elevation Range
450-550m
Flood Zone
Areas near Jackson Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near Jackson Creek. The council is working to improve drainage infrastructure in these areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Wombat State Forest
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties in Gisborne are subject to bushfire regulations. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Gisborne experiences several days above 30 degrees Celsius each summer. Heatwaves can put a strain on the local infrastructure and health services.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Gisborne, affecting properties near Jackson Creek.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the Macedon Ranges, including areas near Gisborne.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Gisborne experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2023
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Gisborne.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.2(+1.2)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)4.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)5.5(+0.5)5.9(+0.9)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Gisborne is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Reduction

Immediate

Implement fuel reduction programs and educate residents on bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a community heatwave plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct workshops and provide resources to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Property-Level Flood Mitigation

Near-term

Encourage homeowners to implement flood mitigation measures such as raising electrical appliances and installing flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Gisborne's Climate Risk Profile

Gisborne, located in the Macedon Ranges, is vulnerable to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its susceptibility to flooding, which is expected to worsen with more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also a concern due to the surrounding bushland, with hotter and drier conditions creating a higher risk of fire.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to vulnerable populations. While Gisborne is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change will affect the region.

Adapting to these changes requires a combination of individual preparedness and community-level action. Residents should take steps to protect their properties from flooding and bushfires, and be prepared for heatwaves.

The local council is developing strategies to mitigate climate risks and build resilience. These strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, managing bushfire fuel loads, and implementing heatwave response plans. Community engagement and education are also crucial for ensuring that residents are aware of the risks and how to prepare for them.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Gisborne?

Gisborne faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can raise electrical appliances, install flood barriers, and ensure proper drainage around your property.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about bushfire preparedness?

The CFA and local council provide resources on bushfire preparedness.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is developing strategies to mitigate climate risks and build resilience, including improving drainage infrastructure and managing bushfire fuel loads.

Will climate change affect my property value in Gisborne?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

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