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Climate Risk Assessment for Glen Park, VIC

Glen Park, Victoria· Cardinia
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Glen Park faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a consideration. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Glen Park

increasing

Flood

65/100

Glen Park faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Properties close to creeks and low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Glen Park is moderate due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Properties bordering these areas are at higher risk during dry and windy conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High winds
increasing

Heat

60/100

Glen Park experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, are most at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Glen Park has a very low risk of coastal hazards due to its distance from the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Glen Park

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Glen Park experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, are most at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Glen Park faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Properties close to creeks and low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Glen Park has a very low risk of coastal hazards due to its distance from the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Glen Park is moderate due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Properties bordering these areas are at higher risk during dry and windy conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High winds
  • ·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and other extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a negative impact on property values.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's bushfire risk.
  • 3.Ensure the property is well-insulated for heatwaves.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cardinia Creek
Elevation Range
50-70m
Flood Zone
Areas near Cardinia Creek are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near Cardinia Creek have experienced flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Bunyip State Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
55 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Glen Park, particularly near Cardinia Creek.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted areas near Glen Park, causing significant damage to surrounding bushland.

Source
2014
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2014 resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized flooding and power outages in Glen Park.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.8(+0.8)7.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Glen Park is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk may also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Provide education and resources to residents on how to prepare for and respond to bushfires, including creating a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Glen Park's Climate Risk Profile

Glen Park, Victoria, is a suburb that faces a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and proximity to waterways, and heatwaves, which are projected to become more frequent and severe.

The risk of flooding is driven by both natural factors and urban development. Increased rainfall intensity, a consequence of climate change, can overwhelm drainage systems. Properties in low-lying areas or near creeks are particularly vulnerable. Bushfire risk is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry periods.

Heatwaves are a significant concern for Glen Park, especially for vulnerable populations. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events can lead to heat stress and other health issues. It's crucial for residents to take precautions during these periods.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the broader impacts of climate change will still be felt. Preparing for extreme weather events and implementing adaptation measures are essential for building resilience in Glen Park.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Cardinia Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Glen Park?

The main climate risks in Glen Park are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Flooding is primarily due to increased rainfall intensity, while heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe. Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding bushland.

How can I prepare for a flood in Glen Park?

To prepare for a flood, you should check flood maps, elevate valuable items, and have an evacuation plan. Sandbagging may also be necessary in some areas.

What should I do during a heatwave in Glen Park?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Glen Park?

To protect your property from bushfires, clear vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan. Consider installing fire-resistant materials.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Glen Park?

You can find more information about climate change in Glen Park on the Cardinia Shire Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

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30-120%
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