Climate Risk in Great Western, VIC

Great Western, Victoria· Northern Grampians Shire· 3377
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Great Western faces moderate risks from bushfires and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of these events. Residents should prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.8
Heat
4.3
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Great Western

increasing

Flood

45/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Local drainage capacity can be exceeded during intense storms.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

68/100

Great Western faces a notable bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and dry conditions, particularly during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

43/100

The area experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Great Western is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Great Western

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

43/100

The area experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.6

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Local drainage capacity can be exceeded during intense storms.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Great Western is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

Great Western faces a notable bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and dry conditions, particularly during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

6.9

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and flooding.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Concongella Creek
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Concongella Creek

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during periods of heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to the Grampians National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is subject to bushfire management regulations and guidelines.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
180 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near the Grampians National Park threatened the town.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.2(+0.7)
bushfire686.86.9(+0.1)
heat434.6(+0.3)4.8(+0.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Great Western is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Planning

Immediate

Develop and implement comprehensive bushfire preparedness plans for residents and businesses.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Establish a heatwave early warning system to alert vulnerable populations and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Great Western's Climate Risk Profile

Great Western, Victoria, is a rural community that faces a range of climate-related challenges. The primary risks include bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

The area's proximity to bushland increases the risk of bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. Historical data indicates that the region has experienced several bushfire events, highlighting the need for proactive fire management strategies.

Flooding can occur due to heavy rainfall, overwhelming local drainage systems. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.

Heatwaves are also a concern, with rising temperatures posing health risks to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks in built-up areas.

Adapting to these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved infrastructure, community education, and emergency preparedness. Residents should stay informed about local risks and take steps to protect themselves and their properties.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Northern Grampians Shire Council

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Great Western?

Great Western faces risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, create a bushfire survival plan, and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on elderly neighbors and vulnerable individuals.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Contact the Northern Grampians Shire Council or visit their website for flood maps and information.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the community's vulnerability to climate risks.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections