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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Horsham, VIC

Horsham, Victoria· Horsham Rural City· 3400
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Horsham is a regional city in Victoria that faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with increasing trends due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also present. Coastal risks are negligible due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Horsham experiences hot summers, with the risk of heatwaves increasing due to climate change. High temperatures can impact vulnerable populations and strain infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Higher average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Horsham faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Wimmera River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Horsham is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

The risk of bushfire in Horsham is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a potential threat during hot and dry conditions. Grassfires can spread rapidly, impacting properties on the urban fringe.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding or bushfire.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wimmera River
Elevation Range
120-140m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Wimmera River are designated as flood zones.

The Wimmera River has a history of flooding in Horsham, with significant events impacting residential and commercial areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay applies to some areas on the city's fringe.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Grassfires are a common concern in the summer months, particularly in areas with dry vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves can place a strain on the local healthcare system, with increased demand for ambulance services and hospital admissions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
280 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in Horsham following heavy rainfall, impacting homes and businesses along the Wimmera River.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures in Horsham, placing a strain on infrastructure and causing health impacts.

Source
2006
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along the Wimmera River, affecting low-lying areas and some roads.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Horsham threatened properties and required significant firefighting efforts.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood6.56.9(+0.4)7.2(+0.7)7.1(+0.6)7.6(+1.1)
bushfire4.04.2(+0.2)4.3(+0.3)4.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat6.06.5(+0.5)6.8(+0.8)6.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal1.01.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Horsham is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including fuel reduction, community education, and improved emergency response capabilities.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply in the face of climate change, including water restrictions and incentives for water-efficient appliances.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Horsham's Climate Risk Profile

Horsham, located in the Wimmera region of Victoria, is primarily exposed to flooding, bushfire, and heatwave risks. The Wimmera River and surrounding waterways contribute to the flood risk, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, with more intense rainfall events leading to increased flood potential.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with grasslands and bushland surrounding the city. Hot and dry conditions can create a high fire danger, threatening properties on the urban fringe. Effective fire management strategies are crucial to mitigate this risk.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Horsham, posing a significant threat to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas. Adaptation measures are needed to protect residents from the impacts of extreme heat.

While Horsham is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to agriculture and water resources, could indirectly affect the region. Sustainable development practices and climate resilience planning are essential to ensure the long-term viability of Horsham.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Victorian State Emergency Service · Horsham Rural City Council

Local Government Resources

Horsham Rural City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Horsham?

The main climate change risks in Horsham are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How is the Horsham Council preparing for climate change?

The Horsham Council is developing climate adaptation strategies and working to improve community resilience to climate-related hazards.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding in Horsham?

You can take steps to flood-proof your home, such as raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage.

How can I prepare for a heatwave in Horsham?

You can prepare for a heatwave by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Horsham?

You can find information about bushfire risks on the CFA website and through local emergency services.

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