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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Kilmore, Victoria

Kilmore, Victoria· Mitchell· 3764
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Kilmore faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events. Property owners should review insurance coverage and consider adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.3
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.3/10

Kilmore is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Kilmore faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Kilmore is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.8/10

Kilmore has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider adaptation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Kilmore Creek
Elevation Range
280-350m
Flood Zone
Areas along Kilmore Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that Kilmore Creek has overflowed its banks in the past, impacting low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to forested areas to the north and east.
Planning Overlay
Refer to the CFA's bushfire-prone area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area's vegetation and topography contribute to the bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in Kilmore following heavy rainfall, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region surrounding Kilmore, causing widespread damage and loss of life.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Kilmore experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire4.85.0(+0.2)5.2(+0.4)
heat5.35.8(+0.5)6.3(+1.0)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Kilmore is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increased heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads and improve firebreaks to mitigate bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents and businesses to conserve water to reduce the impact of droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Kilmore's Climate Risk Profile

Kilmore, located in Victoria, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. These include increased temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, and a higher frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, bushfires, and floods.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase due to more intense rainfall events. This could lead to damage to property and infrastructure, as well as disruptions to transportation and essential services. Residents should be aware of flood risks in their area and take steps to prepare for potential flooding.

Bushfire risk is also projected to increase due to hotter, drier conditions. This could lead to more frequent and intense bushfires, posing a threat to lives, property, and the environment. Residents should be aware of bushfire risks in their area and take steps to prepare for potential bushfires.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water, staying indoors, and using air conditioning.

Overall, climate change poses a significant challenge to Kilmore. By taking steps to prepare for these impacts, residents can help to protect themselves, their property, and their community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Mitchell Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Kilmore?

Kilmore faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Kilmore?

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience price reductions.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Kilmore?

Stay cool by drinking plenty of water, staying indoors, and using air conditioning. Check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Kilmore?

Consult the Mitchell Shire Council's flood maps and emergency services websites.

How can I reduce my bushfire risk in Kilmore?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation and creating firebreaks. Have a bushfire survival plan.

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