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Climate Risk Assessment for Kyneton, VIC

Kyneton, Victoria· Macedon Ranges· 3444
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Kyneton is a town in Victoria that faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with a lower risk of bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heatwaves and flooding events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Kyneton

increasing

Flood

65/100

Kyneton faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Campaspe River and other waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

42/100

Kyneton has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Kyneton is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Kyneton is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Kyneton

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Kyneton is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Kyneton faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Campaspe River and other waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Kyneton is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Kyneton has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a negative impact on property values.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and overlays.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a survival plan.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency measures to mitigate heat impacts.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Campaspe River
Elevation Range
420-480m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Campaspe River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the Campaspe River. Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) applies to some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents in bushfire-prone areas should have a bushfire survival plan and maintain their properties to reduce fire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades, increasing heat stress on the community.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
110 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Campaspe River impacted properties in Kyneton.

Source
2009
bushfireModerate

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, although Kyneton itself was not directly affected, the event highlighted the bushfire risk.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions put strain on local infrastructure and caused heat-related illnesses.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Kyneton, impacting local businesses and residences.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.3(+0.1)4.4(+0.2)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Kyneton is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk. Bushfire risk is expected to remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Support community education programs on bushfire preparedness and assist residents in creating bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Standards

Long-term

Implement stricter building codes to ensure new buildings are more resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and extreme heat.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Kyneton's Climate Risk Profile

Kyneton, located in the Macedon Ranges, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for the area are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and rising temperatures leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The Campaspe River, which runs near Kyneton, poses a flood risk during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding in the region. This can impact residential and commercial properties, as well as infrastructure.

Heatwaves are also becoming a significant concern for Kyneton. As temperatures rise, the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses increases, particularly among vulnerable populations. The town's infrastructure and energy grid may also be strained during prolonged periods of extreme heat.

While bushfire risk is present due to surrounding bushland, it is currently considered lower than the risks from flooding and heatwaves. However, changing climate conditions could potentially increase the bushfire risk in the future. Proactive measures are needed to mitigate these risks and protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Kyneton?

The main climate change risks for Kyneton are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Macedon Ranges Shire Council has a climate strategy in place that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What can residents do to prepare for floods?

Residents can prepare for floods by checking flood maps, developing a flood plan, and ensuring their properties are adequately insured.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Is Kyneton in a bushfire-prone area?

Yes, parts of Kyneton are in a bushfire-prone area. Residents should have a bushfire survival plan and maintain their properties to reduce fire risk.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Kyneton?

Information about emergency services in Kyneton can be found on the SES website.

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