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Climate Risk in Learmonth, Victoria

Learmonth, Victoria· Pyrenees Shire· 3352
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Learmonth is a rural town in Victoria facing increasing climate risks. The primary concerns are bushfire and flood, with heat also posing a moderate threat. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Learmonth

increasing

Flood

45/100

Learmonth faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Learmonth and surrounding waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Learmonth has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Learmonth experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Learmonth is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Learmonth

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Learmonth experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Learmonth faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Learmonth and surrounding waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Learmonth is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area around Learmonth has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Learmonth
Elevation Range
380-420m
Flood Zone
Areas near Lake Learmonth are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the lake.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to the CFA's bushfire-prone area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
120 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Learmonth, impacting properties near Lake Learmonth.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Learmonth threatened properties and required emergency response efforts.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Learmonth experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas after a period of heavy rain.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Learmonth is projected to experience an increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heat and bushfire risk. Flooding risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, such as fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation Measures

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply in the face of changing rainfall patterns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Resilience Building

Near-term

Foster community resilience through education, training, and support networks to prepare for and respond to climate-related disasters.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Learmonth's Climate Risk Profile

Learmonth, located in the Pyrenees Shire of Victoria, is a rural community that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region's climate is characterized by warm summers and cool winters, with rainfall distributed throughout the year. However, climate change is altering these patterns, leading to more extreme weather events.

The most significant climate risks for Learmonth are bushfire and flood. The surrounding grasslands and bushland create a high bushfire risk, particularly during hot, dry summers. Intense rainfall events can also lead to localized flooding, especially in areas near Lake Learmonth and other waterways.

Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a further threat to the community. These conditions can impact vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Infrastructure may also be affected, with increased demand for cooling and potential disruptions to essential services.

While Learmonth is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the community. It is essential for residents and local authorities to take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions and build resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Pyrenees Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Learmonth?

The main climate risks facing Learmonth are bushfire, flood, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfire?

You can prepare your property for bushfire by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining your garden, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Learmonth?

You can find information about flood risks in Learmonth on the Pyrenees Shire Council website and the Victorian State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Pyrenees Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Learmonth?

Climate change may affect property values in Learmonth, particularly in areas that are at high risk of bushfire or flood. It's important to consider these risks when buying or selling property.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Learmonth, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Learmonth →

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