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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Assessment: Lilydale, VIC

Lilydale, Victoria· UNKNOWN· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Lilydale faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Lilydale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Lilydale has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Proximity to waterways

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Lilydale is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Lilydale faces a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider potential increases in insurance premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Olinda Creek
Elevation Range
100-150m
Flood Zone
Partial

Some areas near Olinda Creek are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2021
stormModerate

Severe storms caused widespread damage across the Yarra Ranges, including Lilydale, with fallen trees and power outages.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region surrounding Lilydale, causing significant damage and loss of life.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Lilydale, particularly near Olinda Creek.

Source
2014
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2014 resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents in Lilydale.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire4.24.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat7.07.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Lilydale is projected to experience a noticeable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a slightly elevated risk of flooding. Bushfire risk will also increase marginally.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and support residents in preparing their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Sustainable Urban Planning

Long-term

Promote sustainable urban planning practices to reduce the urban heat island effect and minimize environmental impacts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Lilydale's Climate Risk Profile

Lilydale, Victoria, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts, primarily related to increased temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase due to more intense rainfall events. This could lead to damage to property and infrastructure, as well as disruptions to daily life. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take steps to prepare.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with hotter, drier conditions increasing the likelihood of fires. Properties located near bushland are particularly vulnerable. It is important to maintain properties and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves and check on neighbors.

While Lilydale is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Yarra Ranges Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Lilydale?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Lilydale?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased insurance premiums and potential damage from extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare my home for climate change impacts?

You can improve your home's insulation, install water tanks, clear vegetation around your property, and develop an emergency plan.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Lilydale?

Contact the Yarra Ranges Council or visit the State Emergency Service website for flood maps and information.

What resources are available to help me prepare for bushfires?

The Country Fire Authority (CFA) provides information and resources on bushfire preparedness, including how to create a bushfire survival plan.

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