Climate Risk in Lismore, VIC

Lismore, Victoria

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Lismore, VIC, faces a moderate overall climate risk. The primary concerns are flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lismore

increasing

Flood

65/100

Lismore faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Historical flood events indicate vulnerability, and climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Rising river levels

stable

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Lismore is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer. While not directly adjacent to dense bushland, ember attack remains a concern.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

50/100

Lismore experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a threat to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Lismore is not located near the coast, therefore the coastal risk is very low.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lismore

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Lismore experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a threat to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Rising river levels
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Lismore is not located near the coast, therefore the coastal risk is very low.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Lismore is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer. While not directly adjacent to dense bushland, ember attack remains a concern.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and fire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and overlays
2.Assess bushfire risk
3.Consider energy efficiency for cooling
4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and rivers
Elevation Range: Varies, some low-lying areas
Flood Zone: Areas near waterways

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 5km of some bushland areas
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to some properties
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Significant flooding impacted Lismore, causing property damage and road closures.

Source

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source

2015

bushfireMinor

Bushfires in nearby areas caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Lismore.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	50	5.8(+0.8)	6.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Lismore is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of flooding due to heavier rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage infrastructure and flood barriers to protect properties from rising water levels.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a community-wide heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Provide education and resources to residents on bushfire safety, including property maintenance and evacuation planning.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Lismore's Climate Risk Profile

Lismore, Victoria, is a rural locality that is exposed to several climate-related risks. The most significant threat is flooding, driven by increased rainfall intensity and proximity to waterways. Historical flood events have caused damage to property and infrastructure, and future climate projections suggest this risk will worsen.

Bushfire risk is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. While not immediately adjacent to large bushland areas, the potential for ember attack remains a concern during periods of high fire danger. Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of fire safety guidelines.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Rising average temperatures also contribute to increased energy demand for cooling and potential strain on infrastructure.

While Lismore is not directly impacted by coastal hazards, the broader effects of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the community. Adaptation measures are essential to build resilience and protect the well-being of residents.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Lismore?

The main climate risks are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property by installing flood barriers, improving drainage, and elevating electrical systems.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I protect my home from bushfires?

You can protect your home by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Lismore?

You can find more information on the local council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

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30-120%

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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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