Climate Risk Profile: Long Gully, VIC

Long Gully, Victoria· City of Greater Bendigo· 3550
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Long Gully faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events. Coastal risk is negligible due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Long Gully

increasing

Flood

40/100

Long Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and the potential overflow of local waterways. The risk is projected to increase slightly due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Long Gully has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is expected to further increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Long Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, are particularly at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Long Gully is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Long Gully

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Long Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Long Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and the potential overflow of local waterways. The risk is projected to increase slightly due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.3

2050

4.7

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Long Gully is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Long Gully has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is expected to further increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load accumulation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand policy coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan if located in a bushfire-prone area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Bendigo Creek
Elevation Range
200-240m
Flood Zone
Areas along Bendigo Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near Bendigo Creek. Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay applies to some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents in bushfire-prone areas should have a bushfire survival plan and maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future. Council provides cooling centers and advice on staying safe during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in parts of Bendigo, including Long Gully, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased mortality rates in Bendigo.

Source
2006
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred in Long Gully due to heavy rainfall, causing minor property damage.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2019 put strain on local resources and caused heat-related illnesses.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)4.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.0(+1.0)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.5(+0.5)5.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Long Gully is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement bushfire management plans for properties in bushfire-prone areas, including fuel reduction and evacuation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish Cooling Centers

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Long Gully's Climate Risk Profile

Long Gully, located in central Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall, bushfires due to dry conditions and proximity to bushland, and heatwaves affecting vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a concern due to the potential for heavy rainfall events to overwhelm local drainage systems. Bushfire risk is elevated during the hot, dry summer months, with the potential for fires to spread rapidly through nearby bushland. Heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Long Gully is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, could indirectly affect the community. Adapting to these challenges will require a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and emergency services.

Mitigation strategies, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in renewable energy, are essential to slowing the pace of climate change. Adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and providing support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves, are crucial for protecting the community from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · City of Greater Bendigo

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Long Gully?

The main climate risks in Long Gully are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Long Gully?

If you live in a bushfire-prone area, develop a bushfire survival plan, maintain your property to reduce fuel loads, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Long Gully?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Greater Bendigo website and the State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Long Gully?

The City of Greater Bendigo is implementing a climate strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Long Gully?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Are there any community programs to help residents prepare for climate change?

Yes, the City of Greater Bendigo runs community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies. Check the council website for details.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections