Longwarry Climate Risk Assessment
Longwarry, located in Victoria's Gippsland region, faces a medium overall climate risk. The primary concerns are increasing heatwave intensity and moderate flood risks, with bushfire also posing a threat. While coastal impacts are negligible, residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Longwarry
Flood
Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
Bushfire
Medium bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased dry periods
- ·Vegetation fuel load
Heat
High heat risk due to increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
Coastal
Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability
Energy
Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Longwarry
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
High heat risk due to increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
Projections (RCP 4.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
flood Risk
Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
Projections (RCP 4.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
coastal Risk
Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.
Projections (RCP 4.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Medium bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased dry periods
- ·Vegetation fuel load
Projections (RCP 4.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Increasing premiums expected due to higher risk events.
Price Impact
Potential negative impact on property values in high-risk zones.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps for property location.
- 2.Review bushfire attack level (BAL) rating.
- 3.Assess proximity to waterways and potential flood impacts.
- 4.Consider heat resilience of the property.
- 5.Verify insurance availability and cost.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Tarago River
- Elevation Range
- 20-60m
- Flood Zone
- Some areas adjacent to Tarago River
The Tarago River can experience flash flooding after intense rainfall events, impacting low-lying areas near its banks.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to rural/bushland interface
- Planning Overlay
- Significant Bushfire Prone Area Overlay
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The area is classified as bushfire-prone, requiring adherence to CFA guidelines for building and land management.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 26.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 8 days
Average January maximum temperatures are rising, and the number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase significantly.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 100 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Negligible
- Erosion Risk
- Negligible
Historical Climate Events
Significant flooding occurred along the Tarago River, impacting properties in low-lying areas near Longwarry.
SourceA grassfire threatened properties on the outskirts of Longwarry, requiring a significant response from the CFA.
SourceA prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, with temperatures in the Longwarry region exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days.
SourceWidespread flooding across Gippsland, including areas near Longwarry, due to extreme rainfall.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 60 | 6.3(+0.3) | 6.5(+0.5) |
| bushfire | 50 | 5.2(+0.2) | 5.4(+0.4) |
| heat | 65 | 7.0(+0.5) | 7.3(+0.8) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Longwarry is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves. Flood risk will also see a slight increase due to heavier rainfall events.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Community Heatwave Plan
Near-termDevelop and promote a community-wide plan for heatwave preparedness, including identifying cooling centres and supporting vulnerable residents.
Est. cost: $
Learn moreFloodplain Management Review
Near-termUndertake a review of floodplain management strategies for the Tarago River catchment, focusing on updated rainfall intensity projections.
Est. cost: $$
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness Education
ImmediateIncrease community education and engagement on bushfire preparedness, including property maintenance and emergency planning.
Est. cost: $
Learn moreWater Sensitive Urban Design
Long-termIncorporate Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) principles in new developments to manage stormwater runoff and reduce localised flooding.
Est. cost: $$
Learn moreGreen Infrastructure for Cooling
Near-termPromote the planting of trees and creation of green spaces within the town to mitigate the urban heat island effect.
Est. cost: $$
Learn moreAbout Longwarry's Climate Risk Profile
Longwarry, a growing township in the Shire of Cardinia, Victoria, is situated in a region increasingly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. While offering a semi-rural lifestyle, its location presents specific environmental challenges that warrant careful consideration.
The suburb experiences a moderate to high risk from extreme heat events. Projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing health risks to residents and strain on infrastructure. This is driven by overall rising average temperatures and longer periods of extreme heat, exacerbated by the surrounding landscape.
Flood risk is another significant concern for Longwarry. The area is susceptible to riverine flooding from nearby waterways, and increased rainfall intensity due to climate change is likely to exacerbate this risk. Low-lying areas and properties close to watercourses are particularly vulnerable during heavy rainfall events.
Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the proximity to semi-rural areas and natural vegetation. While not as immediate a threat as heat or flood for the core township, the surrounding landscape can contribute to fire spread, especially during prolonged dry periods. Residents in fringe areas need to be particularly vigilant.
In contrast, Longwarry is geographically distant from the coast, meaning direct impacts from sea-level rise and coastal erosion are not a significant concern. However, the broader regional climate trends still influence the local environment and community resilience.
Overall, Longwarry's climate risk profile necessitates a proactive approach to adaptation and preparedness. Understanding these risks and implementing appropriate measures can help safeguard the community and its assets against the escalating challenges of a changing climate.
Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · Cardinia Shire Council · Geoscience Australia · Victorian State Government
Local Government Resources
Cardinia Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main flood risk for Longwarry residents?
The primary flood risk for Longwarry stems from the Tarago River, which can cause riverine flooding after intense rainfall. Low-lying areas near the river are most susceptible.
How will climate change affect heatwaves in Longwarry?
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves in Longwarry. This means more days above 35°C and longer periods of extreme heat.
Is Longwarry considered a high-risk bushfire area?
Longwarry is classified as a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to rural and bushland interfaces. Residents, especially those on the outskirts, should have a bushfire survival plan.
Does Longwarry face any risks from sea-level rise?
No, Longwarry is located too far inland to be directly affected by sea-level rise or coastal erosion.
What can I do to prepare my property for climate risks in Longwarry?
For flood risk, ensure your property is not in a known flood zone and consider flood barriers if necessary. For bushfire, maintain defensible space around your home. For heat, ensure your home is well-insulated and consider shade options.
Where can I find official flood information for Longwarry?
Official flood information, including maps and warnings, can be found on the Cardinia Shire Council website and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) flood pages.
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