Macleod Climate Risk Assessment

Macleod, Victoria· City of Banyule· 3085
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Macleod, VIC, faces a medium overall climate risk, with heatwaves posing the most significant threat due to increasing temperatures and urban heat island effects. While flood risk is moderate and increasing, bushfire risk is lower but present. Coastal risks are negligible.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
5.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.5
Coastal
0.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Macleod

increasing

Flood

55/100

Macleod faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from localised stormwater and potential overflow from nearby creeks, exacerbated by increasing rainfall intensity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation and impervious surfaces
stable

Bushfire

40/100

While not directly bordering major bushland, Macleod has a low to moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to parklands and potential for ember attack from surrounding vegetated areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to parklands
  • ·Vegetation management
increasing

Heat

75/100

Macleod experiences a high risk from heatwaves, with significant increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat days projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Urban Heat Island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
stable

Coastal

5/100

Macleod is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or storm surges.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Macleod

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

75/100

Macleod experiences a high risk from heatwaves, with significant increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat days projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Urban Heat Island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
  • ·Reduced cooling from vegetation

Projections (SSP2-4.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.8

Data source

flood Risk

55/100

Macleod faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from localised stormwater and potential overflow from nearby creeks, exacerbated by increasing rainfall intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation and impervious surfaces
  • ·Stormwater system capacity

Projections (SSP2-4.5)

2030

6.2

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

5/100

Macleod is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or storm surges.

Projections (SSP2-4.5)

2030

0.5

2050

0.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

While not directly bordering major bushland, Macleod has a low to moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to parklands and potential for ember attack from surrounding vegetated areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to parklands
  • ·Vegetation management
  • ·Prevailing winds

Projections (SSP2-4.5)

2030

4.3

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Moderate to High risk of increased premiums due to heatwave and potential flood events. Bushfire insurance is advisable for properties near vegetated areas.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in areas prone to more frequent extreme heat or localised flooding. Properties with strong climate resilience features may see a positive impact.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check proximity to waterways and drainage paths.
  • 2.Assess tree canopy cover and potential for cooling.
  • 3.Review council planning overlays for bushfire or flood risk.
  • 4.Inquire about stormwater management on property.
  • 5.Consider insulation and cooling efficiency of the home.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Yarra River (approx. 5km)
Elevation Range
20-50m AHD
Flood Zone
Low to moderate risk areas identified in council planning schemes, primarily associated with localised inundation.

Stormwater capacity is a key concern, with increasing development potentially reducing infiltration and increasing runoff.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Banyule Flats Reserve and other smaller parklands.
Planning Overlay
Designated Bushfire Prone Area in parts.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Ember attack is a potential risk, especially from the north and east.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
12 days

Significant increase in days over 35°C projected. Tree canopy cover is variable across the suburb.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

1983
bushfireMajor

The Ash Wednesday bushfires impacted large areas of Victoria, including some outer suburbs, though Macleod itself was largely spared direct impact but experienced significant smoke and community concern.

Source
2010
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to localised flooding in parts of Melbourne's northeast, including areas within the City of Banyule, causing disruptions to transport and some property damage.

Source
2014
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged and intense heatwave affected Victoria, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days, leading to increased hospital admissions and strain on the power grid.

Source
2021
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and wind damage across Melbourne, impacting suburbs like Macleod with power outages and localised street flooding.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: SSP2-4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood556.0(+0.5)6.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)
heat758.5(+1.0)9.5(+2.0)
coastal50.50.5

By 2030, Macleod is projected to experience a noticeable increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by a significant rise in heatwave intensity and frequency. Flood risk will also see a moderate increase due to more extreme rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Increase Urban Tree Canopy

Near-term

Implement a large-scale tree planting program, focusing on streets and public spaces, to mitigate the Urban Heat Island effect and provide cooling.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading and expanding stormwater drainage systems to cope with increased rainfall intensity and reduce localised flooding.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Promote Cool Roofs and Green Walls

Near-term

Incentivise or mandate the use of cool roofing materials and green walls in new developments and retrofits to reduce building heat absorption.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Develop and promote community-based bushfire preparedness plans, focusing on fuel management in adjacent reserves and ember-resistant building practices.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Establish clear public health guidelines and cooling centre strategies for extreme heat events, targeting vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

About Macleod's Climate Risk Profile

Macleod, a suburb in Melbourne's northeast, is situated within the City of Banyule. Its climate risk profile is shaped by its inland location, urban characteristics, and proximity to natural and semi-natural areas.

The most pressing climate concern for Macleod is the escalating risk of heatwaves. The suburb is susceptible to the Urban Heat Island effect, where built environments absorb and retain more heat than natural landscapes. This, combined with projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat days, significantly elevates the risk of heat-related illnesses and stress on infrastructure. Projections indicate a substantial rise in heatwave severity by 2050, demanding proactive adaptation strategies.

Flood risk in Macleod is primarily associated with intense rainfall events overwhelming the stormwater drainage system and potential localised creek flooding. While not a major flood plain, the increasing intensity of rainfall due to climate change means that even moderate events can cause significant disruption. Urbanisation, with its increase in impervious surfaces, further exacerbates stormwater runoff, contributing to this moderate and increasing risk.

Bushfire risk, while lower than for suburbs directly adjacent to large bushland reserves, cannot be entirely dismissed. Macleod's proximity to areas like the Banyule Flats Reserve and other vegetated corridors means there is a potential for ember attack and fire spread, particularly during hot, dry, and windy conditions. Effective vegetation management and community preparedness are key to mitigating this risk.

Given its inland position, Macleod is not exposed to direct coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or storm surges. This aspect of climate risk is negligible for the suburb. However, the interconnectedness of climate impacts means that extreme weather events, even those not directly coastal, can indirectly affect the region through infrastructure strain and emergency service responses.

Overall, Macleod's climate resilience requires a focus on managing heat risks through urban greening and building design, improving stormwater management to cope with intense rainfall, and maintaining vigilance regarding bushfire preparedness in nearby vegetated areas.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · State Emergency Service (SES) Victoria · City of Banyule Council · Geoscience Australia · Victorian Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main climate risk for Macleod residents?

The primary climate risk for Macleod is the increasing intensity and frequency of heatwaves, exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island effect. This poses significant health risks and strains infrastructure.

Is Macleod prone to major flooding?

Macleod faces a moderate risk of localised flooding due to intense rainfall overwhelming stormwater systems. While not in a major flood plain, increased rainfall intensity makes this a growing concern.

What is the bushfire risk in Macleod?

The bushfire risk is considered low to moderate. While Macleod isn't directly bordered by large forests, its proximity to parklands like Banyule Flats means ember attack is a possibility during high-risk fire conditions.

How will climate change affect property values in Macleod?

Properties in areas more susceptible to extreme heat or localised flooding may see a negative impact on value. Conversely, homes with strong climate resilience features could become more desirable.

What can I do to prepare my home in Macleod for climate risks?

Consider improving home insulation, installing efficient cooling systems, planting shade trees, ensuring good stormwater drainage on your property, and staying informed about heatwave and fire warnings.

Does Macleod have any specific council initiatives for climate change adaptation?

Yes, the City of Banyule has strategies focusing on increasing tree canopy, improving environmental sustainability, and managing water resources, which contribute to climate adaptation within Macleod.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections