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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Profile: Maffra, VIC

Maffra, Victoria· Wellington· 3860
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Maffra faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a concern. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of these events, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
0.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Maffra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Maffra has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Macalister River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

0.5/10

Maffra is located inland and has a very low risk from coastal hazards.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

0.5

2050

0.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Maffra faces a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macalister River
Elevation Range
50-70m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Macalister River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that Maffra has experienced several significant flood events in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
The CFA provides bushfire overlay maps for the region.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Maffra is located in a designated bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea-level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

The Macalister River flooded, impacting low-lying areas of Maffra.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the broader Gippsland region, with Maffra experiencing significant smoke and ash.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Maffra experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in parts of Maffra, affecting some residential areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat6.06.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal0.50.50.5

By 2030, Maffra is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage systems and levees to mitigate flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Implement community-based bushfire management plans and conduct regular fire drills.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish Heatwave Response Strategies

Near-term

Create public cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to address potential water shortages due to climate change.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Emergency Preparedness

Immediate

Improve community awareness and preparedness for climate-related emergencies through education and training programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Maffra's Climate Risk Profile

Maffra, located in the Gippsland region of Victoria, is susceptible to several climate-related hazards. The town's proximity to the Macalister River increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in rainfall intensity, which could exacerbate flood events in the future.

Bushfire risk is also a concern for Maffra, given the surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Victoria, and Maffra is no exception. These events can have significant impacts on human health, particularly for vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on elderly neighbors during heatwaves.

While Maffra is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader Gippsland region is experiencing the effects of sea-level rise and coastal erosion. These changes can have indirect impacts on the town, such as disruptions to transportation and supply chains. Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from local government, emergency services, and the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Wellington Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Maffra?

Maffra faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How is the Wellington Shire Council addressing climate change?

The Wellington Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the community's vulnerability to climate-related hazards.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves in Maffra?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, check on elderly neighbors, and follow advice from health authorities during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about bushfire safety in Maffra?

Information about bushfire safety can be found on the CFA website and through community-based bushfire management programs.

Are there any flood maps available for Maffra?

Flood maps are available on the Wellington Shire Council website, showing areas that are at risk of flooding.

How will climate change affect property values in Maffra?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value, while insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of climate-related hazards.

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