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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Marysville, VIC

Marysville, Victoria· UNKNOWN· 3779
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Marysville faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

7.2/10
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Marysville is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Marysville faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Marysville is not located near the coast and therefore faces minimal risk from coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

8.0/10

Marysville is located in a high bushfire risk area, as evidenced by the devastating 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate bushfire risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by climate risks, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Steavenson River
Elevation Range
150-250m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Steavenson River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that properties close to the river are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Immediately adjacent to bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO)
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire Marysville area is considered a high bushfire risk zone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly during the summer months.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
120 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires devastated Marysville, destroying most of the town and claiming many lives.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Steavenson River to flood, inundating low-lying areas of Marysville.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2020
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused significant smoke haze and prompted evacuation warnings for Marysville.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire8.08.7(+0.7)9.2(+1.2)
heat6.06.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Marysville is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increased bushfire and flood risk. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve bushfire preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement a community bushfire preparedness plan, including evacuation routes, firebreaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave management plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers, public awareness campaigns, and early warning systems.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote sustainable land management

Long-term

Implement sustainable land management practices to reduce fuel loads and improve water management, such as controlled burns, reforestation, and erosion control measures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Marysville's Climate Risk Profile

Marysville, Victoria, is a town with a history marked by both natural beauty and devastating natural disasters. The region's climate is changing, leading to increased risks from bushfires, floods, and heatwaves.

The risk of bushfires is particularly high due to the surrounding forests and projected drier conditions. The 2009 Black Saturday bushfires had a catastrophic impact on Marysville, highlighting the vulnerability of the town to this hazard. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Flooding is another significant concern for Marysville, with the town located near waterways that are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe floods.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense in Marysville, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress and other health problems, particularly for the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing adaptation measures, and increasing community preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Murrindindi Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Marysville?

Marysville faces significant climate risks from bushfires, floods, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How did the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires impact Marysville?

The 2009 Black Saturday bushfires had a catastrophic impact on Marysville, destroying most of the town and claiming many lives. The event highlighted the vulnerability of the town to bushfires.

What is being done to protect Marysville from future bushfires?

Efforts are underway to improve bushfire preparedness in Marysville, including developing community bushfire plans, implementing fuel reduction programs, and upgrading firebreaks.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

You can prepare your property for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant building materials, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Marysville?

You can find more information about climate change in Marysville from the Murrindindi Shire Council, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the CSIRO.

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