Climate Risk Assessment: Merriang South, VIC

Merriang South, Victoria· Mitchell Shire· 3757
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Merriang South faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. The suburb's inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Merriang South

increasing

Flood

65/100

Merriang South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Merriang South is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions. The presence of grasslands and nearby bushland increases the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Merriang South experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Merriang South is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Merriang South

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Merriang South experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Merriang South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Merriang South is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Merriang South is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions. The presence of grasslands and nearby bushland increases the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Sunday Creek
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Areas near Sunday Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near the creek have been affected in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) applies to some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check with the local council for specific property risks and regulations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Plan ahead for heatwaves and ensure adequate cooling measures are in place.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting properties near Sunday Creek.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires had a devastating impact on nearby communities, highlighting the region's vulnerability.

Source
2014
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2016
stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized damage and power outages in the area.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.5(+0.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Merriang South is projected to experience a moderate increase in flood and bushfire risk, along with slightly higher average temperatures.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Resilience Building

Long-term

Promote community resilience through education and awareness programs on climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Merriang South's Climate Risk Profile

Merriang South, located in Victoria, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by dry conditions and high temperatures, and heatwaves that pose a threat to vulnerable populations.

The risk of flooding is driven by the suburb's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern, particularly during the summer months. The presence of grasslands and nearby bushland increases the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a greater threat to the community.

Heatwaves are another growing concern, with temperatures expected to rise in the coming years. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves and be aware of the signs of heatstroke.

While Merriang South is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the impacts of climate change will be felt across the region. It is important for residents to take action to reduce their carbon footprint and support efforts to mitigate climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · CFA Victoria · Mitchell Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Merriang South?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more severe heatwaves.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Ensure your property has adequate drainage, consider installing flood barriers, and keep valuables above flood level.

What should I do during a bushfire?

Follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Merriang South?

Consult the Mitchell Shire Council website, the Victorian State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections