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Climate Risk in Mildura, Victoria

Mildura, Victoria· Mildura Rural City· 3500
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Mildura faces increasing risks from heatwaves and flooding due to climate change. While bushfire risk is moderate, the region is not exposed to coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mildura

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mildura faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Murray River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Mildura has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other parts of Victoria, but dry vegetation and hot summers can create conditions conducive to bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves and droughts, potentially increasing bushfire risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mildura experiences hot summers and is vulnerable to heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, posing a significant risk to human health and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mildura is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mildura

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mildura experiences hot summers and is vulnerable to heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, posing a significant risk to human health and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mildura faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Murray River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mildura is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Mildura has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other parts of Victoria, but dry vegetation and hot summers can create conditions conducive to bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves and droughts, potentially increasing bushfire risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and heatwave risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.
  • 4.Review emergency management plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Murray River
Elevation Range
30-50m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Murray River are designated as flood zones.

The Mildura Weir can influence local flood levels.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Dry grasslands around Mildura can pose a fire risk during summer.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Mildura experiences some of the highest temperatures in Victoria.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
450 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

Major flooding along the Murray River impacted Mildura, causing property damage and displacement.

Source
2009
heatwaveCatastrophic

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased mortality in Mildura.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Flooding along the Murray River caused disruptions to agriculture and infrastructure in the Mildura region.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in early 2019 put strain on Mildura's infrastructure and healthcare system.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mildura is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve building design for heat resilience

Immediate

Implement passive cooling strategies, such as insulation, shading, and ventilation, to reduce the need for air conditioning during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance flood management infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in levees, drainage systems, and early warning systems to mitigate the impact of flooding along the Murray River.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop community heatwave response plans

Immediate

Establish cooling centers, provide public education on heat safety, and ensure access to healthcare for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation measures

Long-term

Implement water restrictions, encourage water-efficient landscaping, and invest in water recycling infrastructure to ensure water security during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Mildura's Climate Risk Profile

Mildura, located in northwestern Victoria, is projected to experience significant impacts from climate change. The primary risks are associated with increased heatwaves and flooding.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting, posing a threat to vulnerable populations and infrastructure. The Murray River also presents a flood risk, which is expected to increase with more intense rainfall events.

While Mildura is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from climate change, such as disruptions to agriculture and water resources.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of strategies, including improving building design, enhancing emergency management, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Community awareness and preparedness are also crucial for mitigating the impacts of climate change in Mildura.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Mildura Rural City Council

Local Government Resources

Mildura Rural City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mildura?

The main climate change risks in Mildura are increased heatwaves and flooding. Bushfire risk is also a concern, but to a lesser extent. Mildura is not exposed to coastal hazards.

How will climate change affect property values in Mildura?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums due to flood and heatwave risk may also affect property values.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Mildura?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing insulation and shading to keep your home cool.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mildura?

You can find information about flood risks on the Mildura Rural City Council website and the State Emergency Service website.

Is Mildura likely to experience more droughts in the future?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin, which could affect Mildura's water supply. Water conservation measures are important for ensuring water security.

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