Climate Risk Assessment: Mordialloc, VIC

Mordialloc, Victoria· Kingston· 3195
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Mordialloc is a bayside suburb in Melbourne facing increasing climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, driven by sea level rise and changing weather patterns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
2.5
Heat
6.0
Coastal
5.8

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mordialloc

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mordialloc faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
increasing

Bushfire

25/100

The risk of bushfire in Mordialloc is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Mordialloc is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

58/100

Mordialloc faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure, property, and recreational areas along the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mordialloc

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Mordialloc is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mordialloc faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

58/100

Mordialloc faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure, property, and recreational areas along the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

25/100

The risk of bushfire in Mordialloc is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.8

2050

3.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a negative impact on property values.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of heatwaves on the property.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mordialloc Creek
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Mordialloc Creek and the coast are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties along Mordialloc Creek and near the beach.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 5km to the nearest significant bushland.
Planning Overlay
No specific bushfire overlay applies to the majority of Mordialloc.
Bushfire Prone Area
No

The risk of bushfire is relatively low due to the suburb's coastal location and urban development.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some sections of the coastline are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

1934
floodModerate

A major flood event caused significant damage to properties along Mordialloc Creek.

Source
1972
stormModerate

A severe storm caused coastal erosion and damage to beachfront properties.

Source
2009
heatwaveModerate

The 2009 heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Mordialloc.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood656.9(+0.4)7.3(+0.8)7.1(+0.6)7.8(+1.3)
bushfire252.6(+0.1)2.7(+0.2)2.7(+0.2)2.9(+0.4)
heat606.5(+0.5)6.9(+0.9)6.7(+0.7)7.4(+1.4)
coastal586.1(+0.3)6.4(+0.6)6.3(+0.5)6.9(+1.1)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Mordialloc is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Construct or reinforce sea walls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Community Awareness

Immediate

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures through workshops, online resources, and community events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mordialloc's Climate Risk Profile

Mordialloc, a suburb located on the coast of Port Phillip Bay, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying coastal geography makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from both heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are also projected to increase, posing significant health risks to the community.

Coastal erosion is another growing concern for Mordialloc. As sea levels rise, the coastline is likely to recede, threatening infrastructure, property, and recreational spaces. Storm surges could also become more frequent and severe, exacerbating coastal flooding and erosion.

The local council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting community awareness. However, individual residents also need to take steps to prepare for the changing climate.

Adapting to climate change in Mordialloc will require a collaborative effort from all levels of government, the community, and individual property owners. By working together, it is possible to reduce the risks and build a more resilient future for this bayside suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Kingston City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mordialloc?

The main climate change risks in Mordialloc are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, driven by rising sea levels and changing weather patterns.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

Kingston City Council is developing strategies to mitigate climate change risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting community awareness.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Mordialloc?

During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from flooding in Mordialloc?

Consider installing flood barriers, raising electrical appliances, and ensuring proper drainage around your property.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Mordialloc?

You can find more information on the Kingston City Council website, the Victorian State Government website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Is Mordialloc considered a high-risk area for bushfires?

No, Mordialloc is not considered a high-risk area for bushfires due to its coastal location and limited vegetation.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections