Climate Risk Profile: Mount Buffalo, VIC

Mount Buffalo, Victoria· Alpine
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Mount Buffalo faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and heatwaves. The area's mountainous terrain and proximity to bushland increase its vulnerability. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Buffalo

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mount Buffalo faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in a mountainous region with potential for heavy rainfall and runoff. Local waterways and steep terrain contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Mount Buffalo is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to extensive bushland and forests. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mount Buffalo experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Buffalo has a very low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is not located near the coast.

Key drivers:

  • ·Not applicable
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Buffalo

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mount Buffalo experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mount Buffalo faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in a mountainous region with potential for heavy rainfall and runoff. Local waterways and steep terrain contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Buffalo has a very low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is not located near the coast.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Not applicable

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Mount Buffalo is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to extensive bushland and forests. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire and flood risk maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Buffalo River
Elevation Range
Varies from 400m to 1700m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Buffalo River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted infrastructure and property in the region.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by Alpine National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has a history of significant bushfire events.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can be exacerbated by the alpine environment.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireMajor

The 2003 Eastern Victorian alpine bushfires significantly impacted the region, including areas around Mount Buffalo.

Source
2006
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Buffalo River, affecting low-lying areas near Mount Buffalo.

Source
2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires had a devastating impact on Victoria, with significant fires burning in the alpine region.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2013 led to increased heat stress and health concerns in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire808.6(+0.6)9.0(+1.0)
heat707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mount Buffalo is projected to experience an increase in bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, and flood risk will also increase due to more extreme rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan.

Immediate

This plan should include strategies for fuel reduction, early detection, and community evacuation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade infrastructure to withstand more extreme weather events.

Near-term

This includes improving drainage systems, reinforcing buildings, and ensuring reliable power supply.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Implement heatwave preparedness strategies.

Immediate

This includes establishing cooling centers, providing public education, and ensuring access to healthcare.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation and sustainable land management practices.

Long-term

This will help to reduce the impacts of drought and protect water resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Buffalo's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Buffalo, located in the Victorian Alps, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Bushfire risk is particularly high due to the surrounding forests and dry conditions during summer. Increased temperatures and reduced rainfall contribute to drier vegetation, creating ideal conditions for bushfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Residents need to be vigilant and prepared for potential evacuations.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The alpine environment can experience extreme temperature fluctuations, exacerbating the impact of heatwaves.

Flooding is a concern due to the mountainous terrain and potential for heavy rainfall events. Steep slopes and waterways can quickly become overwhelmed, leading to flash flooding in low-lying areas. Proper drainage and infrastructure maintenance are crucial for mitigating flood risks.

While Mount Buffalo is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, can still affect the community. Adapting to these changes requires a proactive approach and community-wide collaboration.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Emergency Management Victoria

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Mount Buffalo?

The main risks are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local emergency services?

Visit the Emergency Management Victoria website for information about emergency services and preparedness.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Alpine Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Visit their website for more information.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections