Climate Risk in Mount Cole Creek, VIC

Mount Cole Creek, Victoria· Pyrenees Shire· 3377
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Mount Cole Creek faces increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Cole Creek

increasing

Flood

40/100

Mount Cole Creek has a moderate risk of flooding. This is due to its location within a catchment area and proximity to waterways.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Mount Cole Creek faces a high risk of bushfire due to the surrounding forested areas and dry conditions during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Mount Cole Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Cole Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Cole Creek

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mount Cole Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Mount Cole Creek has a moderate risk of flooding. This is due to its location within a catchment area and proximity to waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Cole Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Mount Cole Creek faces a high risk of bushfire due to the surrounding forested areas and dry conditions during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider heatwave resilience
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mount Cole Creek
Elevation Range
400-600m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near the creek

Historical flood events have been recorded in the lower parts of the suburb.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Mount Cole State Forest
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is subject to fire restrictions during summer months.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Mount Cole State Forest threatened properties in Mount Cole Creek.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Mount Cole Creek.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for residents.

Source
2019
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire broke out near the town, quickly contained by fire services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mount Cole Creek is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave intensity and bushfire frequency.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve building resilience to bushfires

Immediate

Install fire-resistant materials, clear vegetation around properties, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance flood protection measures

Near-term

Install flood barriers, improve drainage systems, and elevate vulnerable equipment.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave preparedness strategies

Immediate

Establish cooling centers, provide public education on heat stress, and ensure access to water.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop community emergency response plans

Near-term

Establish evacuation routes, communication protocols, and community support networks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures in homes and businesses to reduce water stress during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Cole Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Cole Creek is a rural locality in Victoria, Australia. The region is characterized by its natural beauty, including the nearby Mount Cole State Forest. Climate change is expected to exacerbate existing environmental risks in the area.

Bushfire risk is a significant concern, with hotter and drier conditions increasing the likelihood of severe fires. The surrounding forests provide ample fuel, and changes in wind patterns could further increase the risk.

Flooding is another potential hazard, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Increased rainfall intensity could overwhelm local drainage systems, leading to property damage and disruption.

Heatwaves are also projected to become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to human health, especially for vulnerable populations. Residents should take steps to prepare for extreme heat events.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. This includes improving building resilience, managing vegetation, and developing emergency response plans.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Pyrenees Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mount Cole Creek?

Mount Cole Creek faces increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

Install fire-resistant materials, clear vegetation around your property, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Consult the Pyrenees Shire Council's flood maps and emergency management resources.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Pyrenees Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce risks and build community resilience.

Are there any community initiatives to help residents prepare for climate change?

Yes, local community groups and the council offer workshops and resources on emergency preparedness and climate adaptation.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections