Climate Risk in Mount Cole, Victoria

Mount Cole, Victoria· Pyrenees Shire
High Risk
Updated June 2026

Mount Cole faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and heatwaves. The area's dense vegetation and increasing temperatures contribute to a heightened fire danger, while more frequent heatwaves pose health risks. Residents should prepare for these increasing threats.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Cole

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mount Cole faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and overflowing creeks. The risk is exacerbated by the hilly terrain and potential for rapid runoff.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Deforestation
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Mount Cole is at high risk of bushfires due to its location within a heavily forested area. Dry conditions and strong winds can quickly spread fires, posing a significant threat to properties and lives.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier climate
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mount Cole is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Cole is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Cole

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mount Cole is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mount Cole faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and overflowing creeks. The risk is exacerbated by the hilly terrain and potential for rapid runoff.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Deforestation
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Cole is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Mount Cole is at high risk of bushfires due to its location within a heavily forested area. Dry conditions and strong winds can quickly spread fires, posing a significant threat to properties and lives.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier climate
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire risk reports
  • 2.Assess flood risk
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider cooling and heating requirements
  • 5.Evaluate water storage solutions

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mount Cole Creek
Elevation Range
400-600m
Flood Zone
Areas near Mount Cole Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical records indicate several instances of flooding in low-lying areas following heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by Mount Cole State Forest
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire area is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the extensive surrounding forest.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 40°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Mount Cole State Forest threatened nearby properties, requiring emergency response and evacuations.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas around Mount Cole Creek, impacting local infrastructure.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased health risks for residents.

Source
2019
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire broke out in the Mount Cole State Forest, quickly contained by fire services.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall, affecting some roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire808.7(+0.7)9.2(+1.2)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mount Cole is projected to experience an increase in bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, posing a greater threat to public health. Flood risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Community Bushfire Protection Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan outlining evacuation routes, community refuges, and fire safety measures. Conduct regular drills and training sessions.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement a Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Establish a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe. Target vulnerable populations with specific support.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding. Implement stormwater management strategies.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives. Implement water restrictions during dry periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Forest Management

Immediate

Implement controlled burns and vegetation management to reduce fuel loads and mitigate bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Mount Cole's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Cole, located in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. The region's dense forests make it highly susceptible to bushfires, which are expected to become more frequent and intense due to drier conditions and rising temperatures.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with average temperatures projected to increase in the coming decades. This poses a significant threat to the health of residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The risk of flooding is also present, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall, which can overwhelm local waterways and drainage systems.

These climate risks have implications for property values, insurance costs, and the overall livability of Mount Cole. Residents are encouraged to take proactive measures to mitigate these risks, such as implementing fire safety measures, preparing for heatwaves, and ensuring adequate flood protection.

Addressing climate change in Mount Cole requires a coordinated effort involving local government, community organizations, and individual residents. By working together, it is possible to build a more resilient and sustainable future for the region.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mount Cole?

The main climate change risks in Mount Cole are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant materials, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the Pyrenees Shire Council website or by contacting the council directly.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Pyrenees Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These strategies include promoting energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy, and improving infrastructure resilience.

Are there any community groups working on climate action in Mount Cole?

Yes, there are several community groups in the region focused on environmental sustainability and climate action. Contact the Pyrenees Shire Council for more information.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections