Climate Risk in Mount Macedon, Victoria

Mount Macedon, Victoria· Macedon Ranges· 3441
High Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Mount Macedon faces significant risks from bushfires and moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Residents should prepare for potential impacts on property and infrastructure.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.5
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Macedon

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mount Macedon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing of local creeks and waterways. The risk is exacerbated by steep terrain and potential for rapid runoff.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

85/100

Mount Macedon is at high risk of bushfires due to its location within a heavily forested area. Densely vegetated surroundings and dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

60/100

Mount Macedon experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves during summer. The risk is compounded by the lack of urban heat island effect due to the suburb's natural environment.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Macedon has a very low risk from coastal hazards due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Inland location
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Macedon

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Mount Macedon experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves during summer. The risk is compounded by the lack of urban heat island effect due to the suburb's natural environment.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mount Macedon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing of local creeks and waterways. The risk is exacerbated by steep terrain and potential for rapid runoff.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Macedon has a very low risk from coastal hazards due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

85/100

Mount Macedon is at high risk of bushfires due to its location within a heavily forested area. Densely vegetated surroundings and dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.0

2050

9.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire risk reports
  • 2.Assess flood risk
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Deep Creek
Elevation Range
500-1000m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to Deep Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during intense rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by Macedon Regional Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves can pose a risk to elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1983
bushfireCatastrophic

Ash Wednesday bushfires caused widespread damage in the Macedon Ranges, including Mount Macedon.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, with significant fire activity near Mount Macedon.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Mount Macedon, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions placed stress on vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.7(+0.2)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire858.9(+0.4)10.0(+1.5)
heat606.3(+0.3)7.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Mount Macedon is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased bushfire and heatwave frequency.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Bushfire Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Develop and maintain a comprehensive bushfire preparedness plan, including evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a well-stocked emergency kit.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Home Hardening

Near-term

Implement home hardening measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as installing ember guards, clearing vegetation around the property, and using fire-resistant building materials.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Flood Mitigation Measures

Near-term

Implement flood mitigation measures, such as improving drainage systems, elevating vulnerable structures, and installing flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan, including identifying cooling centers, staying hydrated, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Participate in community education programs on climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Macedon's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Macedon, located in the Macedon Ranges, is characterized by its lush forests and elevated terrain. This unique environment contributes to both its natural beauty and its vulnerability to climate-related hazards.

The primary concern for Mount Macedon is bushfire risk. The surrounding dense vegetation provides ample fuel, and dry summer conditions create an environment conducive to fire ignition and spread. Historical bushfire events have demonstrated the potential for significant damage to property and infrastructure.

Flooding is another concern, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. The steep terrain can lead to rapid runoff, overwhelming local drainage systems and causing flash flooding in low-lying areas. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, further exacerbating flood risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. While Mount Macedon benefits from a cooler climate compared to metropolitan Melbourne, rising average temperatures and prolonged periods of extreme heat can still have significant impacts.

Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location. However, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mount Macedon?

The main climate risks facing Mount Macedon are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. Bushfires pose the most significant threat due to the surrounding dense vegetation. Flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall, and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing ember guards, using fire-resistant building materials, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek out air-conditioned environments, avoid strenuous activity, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the Macedon Ranges Shire Council website and the Victorian State Emergency Service website.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Macedon Ranges Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Details can be found on their website.

Are there any community groups focused on climate action in Mount Macedon?

Yes, there are several community groups in the Macedon Ranges focused on climate action and sustainability. Contact the Macedon Ranges Shire Council for more information.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections