Climate Risk in Mudgegonga, Victoria

Mudgegonga, Victoria· Alpine· 3737
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mudgegonga faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mudgegonga

increasing

Flood

45/100

Mudgegonga faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially exacerbating flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Mudgegonga is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of hot, dry days
  • ·Accumulation of dry vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Mudgegonga is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves as a result of climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mudgegonga is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mudgegonga

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mudgegonga is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves as a result of climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Mudgegonga faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially exacerbating flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Low-lying topography

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mudgegonga is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Mudgegonga is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of hot, dry days
  • ·Accumulation of dry vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage limitations.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ovens River
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Ovens River are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that the Ovens River has overflowed its banks in the past, impacting low-lying areas of Mudgegonga.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
DELWP bushfire prone area overlay.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

The average maximum temperature in January is expected to increase in the coming decades, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
300 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

The Ovens River flooded, impacting low-lying areas of Mudgegonga. Several homes were inundated, and roads were closed.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires caused widespread devastation across Victoria, including areas near Mudgegonga. While the town itself was not directly impacted, the fires highlighted the region's vulnerability to bushfires.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Mudgegonga experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days. This put a strain on local resources and caused heat-related illnesses.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mudgegonga is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of bushfires and flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire preparedness and evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to ensure water security during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mudgegonga's Climate Risk Profile

Mudgegonga, located in northeastern Victoria, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, heightened bushfire risk from prolonged dry periods, and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to local waterways. Climate change projections indicate an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern, as the surrounding landscape is prone to fires during hot and dry conditions. The changing climate is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to a higher risk of bushfires.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Mudgegonga is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Victorian State Emergency Service · Alpine Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mudgegonga?

The main climate change risks in Mudgegonga are increased flooding, heightened bushfire risk, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Mudgegonga?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Mudgegonga?

You can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mudgegonga?

You can find information about flood risks on the Alpine Shire Council website and the Victorian State Emergency Service website.

What resources are available to help me cope with heatwaves in Mudgegonga?

The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services provides information and resources on how to cope with heatwaves.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections