ClimateNest
ClimateNest

Climate Risk Profile: Narrapumelap South, VIC

Narrapumelap South, Victoria· Northern Grampians Shire
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Narrapumelap South faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with some bushfire risk. Climate change is expected to increase the severity of these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narrapumelap South

increasing

Flood

65/100

Narrapumelap South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Narrapumelap South has some bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and forested areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

60/100

Narrapumelap South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Narrapumelap South is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narrapumelap South

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Narrapumelap South is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Narrapumelap South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Narrapumelap South is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Narrapumelap South has some bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and forested areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be slightly affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood history of the property.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Ensure adequate bushfire protection measures are in place.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wimmera River
Elevation Range
150-160m
Flood Zone
Low to moderate risk areas identified

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is subject to fire restrictions during summer months.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves typically last for 3-4 days.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting some properties in Narrapumelap South.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased heat-related illnesses.

Source
2006
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged period of high temperatures affected the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.8(+0.8)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Narrapumelap South is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and more frequent heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Education

Near-term

Provide education and resources to residents on how to prepare for and respond to bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Narrapumelap South's Climate Risk Profile

Narrapumelap South, located in Victoria, is an inland area that faces a combination of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and to a lesser extent, bushfire risk.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the area's proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, impacting properties and infrastructure. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating this risk.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with projections indicating more frequent and intense heat events in the future. This poses a particular risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While bushfire risk is present, it is less severe compared to flooding and heatwaves. The surrounding grasslands and forested areas can pose a threat during dry and windy conditions. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared for potential bushfire events.

Overall, Narrapumelap South needs to focus on adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave management plans, and promoting bushfire preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Northern Grampians Shire

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Narrapumelap South?

The main climate risks are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Flooding is a concern due to the area's proximity to waterways, while heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense. Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding grasslands and forested areas.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and supporting community resilience.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, checking on vulnerable neighbors, and following advice from health authorities.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, it is important to stay informed about warnings and evacuation orders. Move to higher ground if necessary, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow instructions from emergency services.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining gutters and roofs, having a bushfire survival plan, and following fire restrictions during summer months.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Narrapumelap South, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Narrapumelap South →

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Narrapumelap South's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data
Get Your flood Risk Report — A$69

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections