Neerim South Climate Risk and Resilience

Neerim South, Victoria· Baw Baw Shire Council· 3831
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Neerim South faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant bushfire threats and increasing flood and heat risks. While its inland location mitigates coastal hazards, residents should prepare for more intense weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
N/A

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Neerim South

increasing

Flood

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and potential for intense rainfall events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Significant bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased dry periods
  • ·Fuel load accumulation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

0/100

Negligible coastal risk due to inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Neerim South

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and potential for intense rainfall events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Flash flooding

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

0/100

Negligible coastal risk due to inland location.

Projections (N/A)

2030

0.0

2050

0.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Significant bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased dry periods
  • ·Fuel load accumulation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums and potential for higher excess due to bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in higher-risk zones, particularly for properties with inadequate mitigation measures.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Review current and historical flood reports for the specific property.
  • 2.Check CFA bushfire risk assessments and Fire Danger Ratings for the area.
  • 3.Assess proximity to vegetation and potential ember attack paths.
  • 4.Investigate local drainage and stormwater management systems.
  • 5.Understand local council's emergency management and climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Neerim River
Elevation Range
200-300m
Flood Zone
Low to Medium

Susceptible to flash flooding from localised intense rainfall and potential minor riverine flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to significant bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Surrounded by mixed sclerophyll forest and farmland, increasing fuel availability.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Experiences warm summers with occasional days exceeding 35°C. Projections indicate more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
120 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

1962
bushfireMajor

The Black Friday bushfires impacted large areas of Victoria, including regions near Neerim South, causing significant destruction.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to localised flooding in the Baw Baw Shire, impacting low-lying areas and impacting transport routes.

Source
2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires devastated parts of Victoria, with significant fire activity in the broader Gippsland region impacting communities.

Source
2016
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, with temperatures soaring across the state, including the Gippsland region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.3(+0.3)4.8(+0.8)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)7.2(+1.2)
heat505.3(+0.3)6.0(+1.0)
coastal00.00.0

By 2030, under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), Neerim South is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk. Bushfire risk is expected to rise due to hotter and drier conditions, while flood and heat risks will also see moderate increases due to more intense rainfall and higher average temperatures.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Strengthen Home Bushfire Defences

Immediate

Implement defendable space principles around properties, upgrade building materials to be fire-resistant, and maintain gutters and roofs.

Est. cost: $5,000 - $20,000+

Learn more

Improve Property Flood Resilience

Near-term

Elevate critical infrastructure (e.g., electricals, hot water systems), install flood barriers where appropriate, and ensure adequate stormwater drainage on property.

Est. cost: $2,000 - $15,000

Learn more

Develop a Household Emergency Plan

Immediate

Create a plan that includes communication strategies, evacuation routes, and emergency kits for all household members, including pets.

Est. cost: $100 - $500

Learn more

Community Bushfire and Flood Preparedness Programs

Near-term

Participate in or initiate local programs focused on fire preparedness, fuel reduction, and flood awareness, fostering community resilience.

Est. cost: Variable (Community/Council funded)

Learn more

Water Management and Conservation

Long-term

Implement rainwater harvesting and water-efficient landscaping to manage water resources during dry periods and reduce runoff during heavy rainfall.

Est. cost: $500 - $5,000

Learn more

About Neerim South's Climate Risk Profile

Neerim South, situated in Victoria's Gippsland region, is a community with a growing awareness of its climate vulnerabilities. The suburb's overall climate risk is assessed as medium, a rating influenced by a confluence of factors including its proximity to significant bushland areas, its position within a river catchment, and the broader climatic trends affecting regional Victoria.

The most prominent risk identified is bushfire. With surrounding areas characterized by dense vegetation and a history of significant fire events in the broader region, Neerim South is classified as a bushfire-prone area. Projections indicate an increasing trend in bushfire risk due to hotter, drier conditions and potentially longer fire seasons. This necessitates robust preparation and response strategies from both residents and local authorities.

Flood risk, while secondary to bushfire, is also a notable concern. The suburb is located within a catchment area, and while not directly on a major river, it is susceptible to flash flooding from intense rainfall events and potential overflow from smaller waterways. The trend for flood risk is also increasing, driven by more extreme rainfall patterns predicted under future climate scenarios.

Heatwaves represent another growing concern. While Neerim South may not experience the extreme urban heat island effect of larger cities, rising average temperatures and an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwave events are projected. This poses risks to vulnerable populations, infrastructure, and local ecosystems.

In contrast, coastal hazards such as sea-level rise and coastal erosion are not relevant to Neerim South due to its significant inland location. However, the cumulative impact of increasing bushfire, flood, and heat risks requires a proactive and integrated approach to climate adaptation and resilience building within the community.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · State Emergency Service (SES) · Baw Baw Shire Council · Geoscience Australia

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary bushfire risk for Neerim South?

The primary bushfire risk stems from the surrounding extensive bushland areas and the classification of Neerim South as a bushfire-prone area. Increased dry periods and fuel loads heighten this risk.

How susceptible is Neerim South to flooding?

Neerim South has a moderate flood risk, primarily from flash flooding due to intense rainfall events and potential minor flooding from the Neerim River and associated waterways. Low-lying areas are more susceptible.

Are there specific areas within Neerim South that are more at risk from climate impacts?

Properties closer to dense bushland are at higher bushfire risk. Areas in lower-lying parts of the suburb or near drainage lines may be more susceptible to flooding.

What are the projected changes in temperature for Neerim South?

Projections indicate a rise in average temperatures and an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves for Neerim South, similar to broader Victorian trends.

Where can I find official flood information for my property in Neerim South?

The Baw Baw Shire Council provides flood maps and information on their website, which is the best resource for property-specific flood risk assessments.

Does Neerim South experience coastal erosion or sea-level rise impacts?

No, Neerim South is located significantly inland and is not exposed to coastal erosion or sea-level rise risks.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections