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Climate Risk Profile: Nerrin Nerrin, VIC

Nerrin Nerrin, Victoria· Corangamite
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Nerrin Nerrin faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by increasing flood and heatwave risks. While coastal risks are low, the community should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Nerrin Nerrin

increasing

Flood

65/100

Nerrin Nerrin faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Corangamite region, which is susceptible to heavy rainfall events. Local waterways and drainage systems can become overwhelmed during intense storms.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Poor drainage infrastructure
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Nerrin Nerrin is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and sparse vegetation posing a potential fire hazard during dry periods. Historical bushfire events in the region highlight the need for vigilance.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Nerrin Nerrin experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, are particularly at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Nerrin Nerrin has a low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is located inland and is not directly exposed to sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Nerrin Nerrin

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Nerrin Nerrin experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Nerrin Nerrin faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Corangamite region, which is susceptible to heavy rainfall events. Local waterways and drainage systems can become overwhelmed during intense storms.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Poor drainage infrastructure
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Nerrin Nerrin has a low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is located inland and is not directly exposed to sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Nerrin Nerrin is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and sparse vegetation posing a potential fire hazard during dry periods. Historical bushfire events in the region highlight the need for vigilance.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and fire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and mitigation measures
  • 3.Consider heatwave preparedness
  • 4.Review council climate adaptation plans

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Corangamite
Elevation Range
130-150m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near waterways

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas around Lake Corangamite.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of grasslands
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is subject to fire restrictions during summer months.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Heatwave events are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Corangamite region impacted Nerrin Nerrin, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Nerrin Nerrin threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2019 caused heat stress and health concerns in Nerrin Nerrin.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting local traffic.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat505.8(+0.8)6.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Nerrin Nerrin is projected to experience increased flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Implement a community heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Management

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation management and community education.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Nerrin Nerrin's Climate Risk Profile

Nerrin Nerrin, located in the Corangamite region of Victoria, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are increasing flood risk due to more intense rainfall events and rising heatwave risks during the summer months. The community needs to consider adaptation strategies to mitigate these impacts.

The flood risk is exacerbated by the potential for overwhelmed drainage systems during heavy storms. Bushfire risk is moderate, with surrounding grasslands posing a hazard during dry periods. Heatwave risks are increasing with rising average temperatures, particularly affecting vulnerable populations.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the overall climate risk profile suggests a need for proactive planning and community resilience-building. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave preparedness plans, and promoting fire safety awareness.

Long-term climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to intensify, highlighting the importance of early action to protect the community and its assets. Adaptation measures should be integrated into local planning and development decisions to ensure a sustainable future for Nerrin Nerrin.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Corangamite Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Nerrin Nerrin?

The main climate risks include increasing flood risk due to more intense rainfall events, rising heatwave risks during summer, and a moderate bushfire risk.

How will climate change affect property values in Nerrin Nerrin?

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks, particularly flood and bushfire risks. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Nerrin Nerrin?

The Corangamite Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Nerrin Nerrin?

You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. The council also provides resources and support during heatwave events.

What should I do in case of a flood in Nerrin Nerrin?

In case of a flood, move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services. Stay informed about flood warnings and evacuation orders.

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