Newhaven Climate Risk Profile

Newhaven, Victoria· Bass Coast Shire Council· 3925
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Newhaven, VIC, faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant threats from coastal processes and bushfires. While flood and heat risks are currently moderate, they are projected to increase. Proactive adaptation is crucial for long-term resilience.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Newhaven

increasing

Flood

40/100

Low to moderate flood risk, primarily from localised heavy rainfall events and potential minor inundation from nearby waterways.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of extreme rainfall events
  • ·Urbanisation leading to increased runoff
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to proximity to coastal heathlands and grasslands, with potential for ember attack and direct flame contact.

Key drivers:

  • ·Warmer and drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel loads in surrounding vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves impacting comfort and health.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent and severe heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

70/100

High coastal risk due to exposure to storm surges, potential sea level rise, and coastal erosion impacting low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased intensity of coastal storms
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Newhaven

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves impacting comfort and health.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent and severe heatwaves

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Low to moderate flood risk, primarily from localised heavy rainfall events and potential minor inundation from nearby waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of extreme rainfall events
  • ·Urbanisation leading to increased runoff

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

High coastal risk due to exposure to storm surges, potential sea level rise, and coastal erosion impacting low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased intensity of coastal storms
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to proximity to coastal heathlands and grasslands, with potential for ember attack and direct flame contact.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Warmer and drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel loads in surrounding vegetation

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums and potential for reduced cover in high-risk coastal and bushfire zones.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in highly exposed areas, particularly those vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Review current and future flood risk maps.
  • 2.Assess proximity to bushfire-prone vegetation and ember attack risk.
  • 3.Investigate coastal erosion and sea level rise projections for the specific property.
  • 4.Check property's insulation and cooling systems for heatwave resilience.
  • 5.Understand local council's climate adaptation plans and building regulations.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Bass River
Elevation Range
0-10m AHD
Flood Zone
Low-lying coastal areas and areas adjacent to Bass River

Flood risk is primarily associated with storm surge and extreme rainfall events impacting low-lying areas near the coast and river.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to coastal heathlands and grasslands
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The vegetation types surrounding Newhaven present a significant fuel load, increasing bushfire risk, especially during hot, dry, and windy conditions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
24.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Coastal breezes offer some moderation, but inland areas and properties with poor insulation are more susceptible to heat stress during prolonged heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate to High

Historical Climate Events

1998
bushfireModerate

Significant bushfires impacted areas around the Bass Coast, including some coastal fringes, requiring evacuations and causing property damage.

Source
2011
stormMajor

Severe storms caused widespread power outages and damage across Gippsland and the Bass Coast, including fallen trees and coastal inundation.

Source
2016
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged and intense heatwave affected Victoria, with record-breaking temperatures in many areas, including the Bass Coast region, leading to health alerts.

Source
2021
coastalModerate

King tides combined with storm surges led to significant coastal erosion and inundation in low-lying areas along the Bass Coast, impacting beaches and foreshore infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.5(+0.5)
heat505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)
coastal707.3(+0.3)7.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Newhaven is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk. Coastal hazards and bushfire risks will see noticeable escalation, while flood and heat risks will also begin to climb.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Dune Restoration and Management

Near-term

Implement programs to restore and maintain coastal dunes to act as natural buffers against erosion and storm surges. This includes revegetation with native species and managing public access.

Est. cost: $50,000 - $200,000

Learn more

Develop and Update Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Enhance the existing bushfire management plan with updated fuel load assessments, strategic firebreaks, and community education on property preparedness, focusing on ember attack mitigation.

Est. cost: $20,000 - $75,000

Learn more

Implement Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS)

Near-term

Integrate SuDS such as rain gardens, permeable pavements, and detention basins into new developments and retrofits to manage stormwater runoff and reduce localised flooding.

Est. cost: $100,000 - $500,000+

Learn more

Community Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Establish a community-wide heatwave action plan including identifying vulnerable residents, establishing cooling centres, and promoting public awareness campaigns on heat safety.

Est. cost: $10,000 - $30,000

Learn more

Climate-Resilient Building Standards Review

Long-term

Advocate for and adopt stricter building codes and planning overlays that account for future climate risks, including elevated flood levels, increased wind loads, and bushfire attack levels.

Est. cost: Variable (developer/owner cost)

Learn more

About Newhaven's Climate Risk Profile

Newhaven, situated in Victoria's Bass Coast Shire, is a coastal community with a growing population and a strong connection to its natural environment. This unique setting, however, exposes it to a range of climate-related risks that are projected to intensify in the coming decades.

The most pressing concern for Newhaven is its coastal exposure. The suburb is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise, increased storm surge activity, and ongoing coastal erosion. These factors pose a direct threat to coastal infrastructure, properties, and natural ecosystems, necessitating robust coastal adaptation strategies.

Bushfire risk is another significant consideration. Newhaven is bordered by areas of coastal heathland and grassland, which can act as fuel sources during hot, dry periods. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events exacerbates this risk, making effective fire preparedness and management essential for the safety of residents and properties.

While flood risk is currently assessed as moderate, primarily linked to intense rainfall events and potential minor inundation from nearby waterways, this risk is not static. Climate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns, potentially leading to more extreme downpours and increasing the likelihood of localised flooding. This underscores the need for effective stormwater management and land-use planning.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern. As average temperatures rise and the intensity and duration of heatwaves increase, Newhaven residents will face greater risks to health and well-being, particularly vulnerable populations. Measures to mitigate urban heat island effects and ensure access to cooling centres will become increasingly important.

Addressing these multifaceted risks requires a coordinated approach involving local government, state agencies, and the community. Investing in adaptation measures, promoting climate-resilient development, and fostering community awareness are key to safeguarding Newhaven's future.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · Victorian State Government · Bass Coast Shire Council · Geoscience Australia

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary flood risk in Newhaven?

The primary flood risk in Newhaven stems from coastal storm surges and king tides, exacerbated by sea level rise. Localised flooding from intense rainfall events is also a concern, particularly in low-lying areas near the Bass River.

How close is Newhaven to significant bushfire fuel sources?

Newhaven is situated adjacent to coastal heathlands and grasslands, which are identified as bushfire-prone areas. This proximity means there is a significant risk of ember attack and direct flame contact during bushfire events.

Will sea level rise significantly impact Newhaven properties?

Yes, projections indicate that sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal inundation and erosion in Newhaven, particularly affecting properties closest to the coastline. This is a key driver of the high coastal risk score.

What measures can homeowners take to prepare for heatwaves in Newhaven?

Homeowners should ensure adequate insulation, install efficient cooling systems, maintain trees for shade, and have a plan for staying cool during heatwaves, such as using community cooling centres or visiting cooler areas.

Does Bass Coast Shire Council have a climate change adaptation plan for Newhaven?

Yes, Bass Coast Shire Council has a climate change strategy that addresses risks across the shire, including coastal adaptation, bushfire preparedness, and sustainable development. Specific actions for Newhaven are outlined within this broader strategy.

What is the projected increase in extreme rainfall events for Newhaven?

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events for the Gippsland region, including Newhaven. This means a higher likelihood of flash flooding and increased strain on drainage systems.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections