Climate Risk Profile: Ocean Grove, VIC

Ocean Grove, Victoria· City of Greater Geelong· 3226
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Ocean Grove is a coastal suburb in Victoria facing moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are increasing flood risk, bushfire potential, rising temperatures, and coastal hazards like sea level rise.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ocean Grove

increasing

Flood

45/100

Ocean Grove faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The Barwon River and local drainage systems can be overwhelmed during heavy downpours.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

60/100

The bushfire risk in Ocean Grove is relatively high due to its proximity to coastal vegetation and grasslands. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hot summers
increasing

Heat

55/100

Ocean Grove experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Ocean Grove faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation during storm surges.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ocean Grove

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Ocean Grove experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Ocean Grove faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The Barwon River and local drainage systems can be overwhelmed during heavy downpours.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.8

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Ocean Grove faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation during storm surges.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The bushfire risk in Ocean Grove is relatively high due to its proximity to coastal vegetation and grasslands. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hot summers
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in vulnerable locations may experience price fluctuations due to climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Barwon River
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Barwon River and low-lying coastal areas are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the Barwon River. Council is undertaking drainage upgrades to mitigate future risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to coastal vegetation and grasslands.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay applies to some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is a concern along parts of the Ocean Grove coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Ocean Grove, impacting some residential properties.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Ocean Grove threatened properties but was contained by fire services.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record high temperatures in Ocean Grove and surrounding areas, placing stress on infrastructure and public health.

Source
2023
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to coastal infrastructure and some properties in Ocean Grove.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.3(+0.8)
bushfire606.2(+0.2)6.5(+0.5)
heat556.0(+0.5)6.5(+1.0)
coastal505.4(+0.4)6.2(+1.2)

By 2030, Ocean Grove is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and coastal inundation risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage systems to manage increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls and implement beach nourishment programs to protect against coastal erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Create and implement bushfire management plans for residential areas and public spaces to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Implement community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ocean Grove's Climate Risk Profile

Ocean Grove, a coastal town in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is exposed to a range of hazards, including flooding from intense rainfall and coastal inundation, bushfire risk due to dry vegetation, and rising temperatures leading to more frequent heatwaves.

The increasing flood risk is driven by more intense rainfall events and the potential for sea level rise to exacerbate coastal flooding. Bushfire risk remains a concern due to the proximity of coastal vegetation and grasslands, which can become highly flammable during hot, dry summers. Rising temperatures are expected to lead to more frequent and severe heatwaves, impacting vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and coastal erosion, pose a significant threat to low-lying areas in Ocean Grove. These hazards can lead to inundation during storm surges and gradual erosion of the coastline. Addressing these climate risks requires a comprehensive approach involving mitigation, adaptation, and community engagement.

Local authorities and residents are taking steps to address these challenges, including implementing flood management strategies, improving bushfire preparedness, and promoting sustainable development practices. However, further action is needed to reduce the vulnerability of Ocean Grove to the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Ocean Grove?

Ocean Grove faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards like sea level rise and erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Ocean Grove?

The City of Greater Geelong is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, developing bushfire management plans, and promoting sustainable development practices.

How can residents prepare for heatwaves in Ocean Grove?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. The council also provides cooling centers during extreme heat events.

What should I do if my property is at risk of flooding in Ocean Grove?

If your property is at risk of flooding, you should have a flood plan in place, ensure your property is adequately insured, and follow the advice of emergency services during flood events.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Ocean Grove?

You can find more information about climate change impacts in Ocean Grove on the City of Greater Geelong website, the Victorian government's climate change website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Are there any grants available for climate adaptation measures in Ocean Grove?

The City of Greater Geelong and the Victorian government may offer grants for climate adaptation measures, such as installing rainwater tanks or improving energy efficiency. Check their websites for current grant opportunities.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections