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Climate Risk Assessment: Pomonal, VIC

Pomonal, Victoria· Northern Grampians Shire· 3381
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Pomonal faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire risk, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.8
Heat
4.2
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Pomonal

increasing

Flood

45/100

Pomonal faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing waterways. Local topography can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

68/100

Pomonal is located in a bushfire-prone area, with a high risk due to surrounding vegetation and dry conditions, especially during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

42/100

Pomonal experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves impacting vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Pomonal is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Pomonal

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

42/100

Pomonal experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves impacting vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.9

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Pomonal faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing waterways. Local topography can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Pomonal is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

Pomonal is located in a bushfire-prone area, with a high risk due to surrounding vegetation and dry conditions, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Fyans Creek
Elevation Range
250-350m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to Fyans Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near Fyans Creek. Improved drainage infrastructure is needed.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Grampians National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is subject to strict building codes and vegetation management requirements to mitigate bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Pomonal, impacting several properties near Fyans Creek.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near the Grampians National Park threatened Pomonal, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flash flooding, causing road closures and property damage in Pomonal.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire687.5(+0.7)8.3(+1.5)
heat424.4(+0.2)4.6(+0.4)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Pomonal is projected to experience a notable increase in bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions. Flood risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage systems to mitigate flood risk from increased rainfall intensity.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Immediate

Develop and implement comprehensive bushfire management strategies, including fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to address potential water scarcity due to drier conditions.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Pomonal's Climate Risk Profile

Pomonal, Victoria, is a rural community that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall events, bushfires due to dry conditions and surrounding vegetation, and heatwaves that can impact vulnerable populations.

Flooding risk is driven by increased rainfall intensity and changes in land use that affect drainage. Bushfire risk is heightened by drier conditions, increased fuel load, and more frequent heatwaves. Heat risk is primarily due to rising global temperatures, with potential for localized effects.

While Pomonal is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader regional impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to agriculture and tourism, can indirectly affect the community. Proactive adaptation measures are essential to mitigate these risks and build resilience.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated approach involving local government, emergency services, and the community. This includes investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing bushfire management strategies, and developing heatwave response plans. Community engagement and education are also crucial to ensure that residents are aware of the risks and prepared to take action.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Northern Grampians Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Pomonal?

The main climate change risks for Pomonal include increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more severe heatwaves.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the community.

What can residents do to prepare for bushfires?

Residents can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around their homes, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Pomonal?

Information about flood risks in Pomonal can be found on the Northern Grampians Shire Council website and through state emergency services.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Pomonal, use our analysis tool.

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