ClimateNest
ClimateNest
PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Rosebud, Victoria

Rosebud, Victoria· Mornington Peninsula· 3939
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Rosebud faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and consider adaptation measures to protect their property and health.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Rosebud is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Rosebud faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.5/10

Rosebud is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could impact coastal infrastructure and property values.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Rosebud has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
  • 4.Obtain a building inspection report.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Port Phillip Bay
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Land Subject to Inundation Overlay

Several properties in Rosebud are located within designated flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Arthurs Seat State Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Parts of Rosebud are designated as bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Rosebud experiences several days above 30 degrees Celsius each summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Rosebud, impacting some residential areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Rosebud experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2015
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to trees and powerlines in Rosebud.

Source
2009
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire occurred near Rosebud, but was quickly contained.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat7.07.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal5.55.9(+0.4)6.3(+0.8)

By 2030, Rosebud is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and coastal erosion risks are also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal protection structures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire risk mitigation

Near-term

Undertake controlled burns and vegetation management to reduce fuel loads in bushfire-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Rosebud's Climate Risk Profile

Rosebud, located on the Mornington Peninsula, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying coastal areas make it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion, while rising temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Flooding is a significant concern for Rosebud, with potential for increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise to exacerbate the risk. Properties near waterways and the coast are particularly vulnerable. Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland, with hotter, drier conditions increasing the likelihood of fires.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas. Coastal erosion and inundation are also major concerns, potentially impacting coastal infrastructure and property values.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slow the pace of climate change, while local adaptation strategies can help protect communities from the impacts that are already occurring. These strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and developing heatwave response plans.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Mornington Peninsula Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Rosebud?

Rosebud faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and bushfires due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Rosebud?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flooding, coastal erosion, and bushfire risks.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Rosebud?

The Mornington Peninsula Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to protect the community from the impacts of climate change.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Rosebud?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Rosebud?

You can find flood maps and information on the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council website.

Get a Property-Specific Report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Rosebud, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Rosebud →

Analyse Your Property Now

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment covering flood, bushfire, and sea level rise and more.

Free instant preview · Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only