Climate Risk Assessment: Running Creek, VIC

Running Creek, Victoria· Southern Grampians Shire
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Running Creek faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Running Creek

increasing

Flood

60/100

Running Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and riverine flooding. The area's topography and proximity to waterways contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Running Creek is moderate due to the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Historical bushfire events have impacted the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

60/100

Running Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is negligible due to Running Creek's inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Running Creek

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Running Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Running Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and riverine flooding. The area's topography and proximity to waterways contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is negligible due to Running Creek's inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Running Creek is moderate due to the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Historical bushfire events have impacted the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wannon River
Elevation Range
150-200m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Wannon River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near the Wannon River are at higher risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km to Grampians National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay may apply in some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check with the local council for specific bushfire-prone area designations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Wannon River impacted properties in Running Creek.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, although Running Creek was not directly affected, smoke and evacuations were present.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Running Creek, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2016
stormMinor

Severe thunderstorms caused localized flooding and power outages in Running Creek.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Running Creek is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage systems and levees to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop a community-based heatwave action plan with cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Reduction

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs and community education initiatives to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve Building Standards

Long-term

Update building codes to require climate-resilient designs, including flood-proofing and heat-resistant materials.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Running Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Running Creek, located in Victoria, is susceptible to several climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and riverine overflow, and heatwaves which are projected to become more frequent and severe.

The area's topography and proximity to waterways increase its vulnerability to flooding. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, further elevating this risk. Residents and businesses should be prepared for potential disruptions and damages.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, particularly during the dry summer months. While not as immediate a threat as flooding or heatwaves, the potential for bushfires should not be ignored. Proper land management and fire prevention measures are essential.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves will require community-level adaptation strategies, such as cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Overall, Running Creek needs to prioritize climate resilience planning to mitigate the impacts of these hazards and ensure the safety and well-being of its community. This includes investing in infrastructure improvements, implementing early warning systems, and promoting community awareness and preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Southern Grampians Shire Council

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Running Creek?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Running Creek?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions, while overall property insurance costs may increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change risks?

The Southern Grampians Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including flood mitigation and heatwave preparedness plans.

How can I prepare my home for increased flood risk?

Consider installing flood barriers, elevating appliances, and ensuring proper drainage around your property.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections