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Climate Risk Profile: Selwyn, VIC

Selwyn, Victoria
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Selwyn faces increasing risks from heatwaves and flooding due to climate change. While bushfire risk is present, it is less pronounced than heat and flood risks. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Selwyn

increasing

Flood

40/100

Selwyn faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Properties close to these waterways are more vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

The bushfire risk in Selwyn is relatively low but still present, particularly for properties bordering vegetated areas. Increased temperatures and drier conditions can exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Selwyn is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is negligible in Selwyn due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Selwyn

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Selwyn is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Selwyn faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. Properties close to these waterways are more vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is negligible in Selwyn due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The bushfire risk in Selwyn is relatively low but still present, particularly for properties bordering vegetated areas. Increased temperatures and drier conditions can exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Review bushfire risk assessments if the property is near vegetated areas.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range
Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks are prone to flooding

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties border vegetated areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to some properties
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check with the local council for specific bushfire risk assessments.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Selwyn.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2016
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Several days of extreme heat impacted the region, straining local resources.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.3(+0.3)3.7(+0.7)
heat708.0(+1.0)9.0(+2.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Selwyn is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase. Coastal risk remains negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing outreach services.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction and community education programs, especially in areas near vegetated land.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Selwyn's Climate Risk Profile

Selwyn is a suburb in Victoria that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are rising temperatures leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, and increased rainfall intensity contributing to a higher flood risk.

The risk of heatwaves is particularly concerning, as it can disproportionately affect vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Residents should take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Flooding is another significant risk, especially for properties located near waterways. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm drainage systems and lead to flash flooding. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place in case of evacuation.

While bushfire risk is present, it is less severe than heat and flood risks. However, residents should still take precautions, especially those living near vegetated areas. Maintaining a defensible space around properties can help reduce the risk of bushfire damage.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Selwyn's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, can still have indirect effects on the region.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Example Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Example Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Selwyn?

The main climate change risks in Selwyn are increased heatwaves and flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly for properties near vegetated areas.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Selwyn?

During heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Follow the advice of local health authorities.

What should I do if my property is at risk of flooding?

Be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place in case of evacuation. Consider purchasing flood insurance and taking steps to protect your property from flood damage.

Is Selwyn in a bushfire-prone area?

Yes, some parts of Selwyn are in bushfire-prone areas. Check with the local council for specific bushfire risk assessments and follow bushfire safety guidelines.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Selwyn?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Selwyn from the local council, state emergency services, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Selwyn, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Selwyn →

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