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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Shepparton, VIC

Shepparton, Victoria· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Shepparton faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. While bushfire risk is lower, it is still present. Coastal risks are negligible due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Shepparton experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

7.0/10

Shepparton faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Goulburn River and relatively flat terrain. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Shepparton is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.0/10

Bushfire risk in Shepparton is relatively low compared to other parts of Victoria, but still present due to surrounding grasslands and agricultural areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the risk in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Goulburn River
Elevation Range
110-120m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Goulburn River are designated as flood zones.

The Goulburn River has a history of flooding in Shepparton, with significant events occurring in 1974, 1993, and 2010.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Several kilometers to the south and east.
Planning Overlay
No specific bushfire overlay applies to the main urban area of Shepparton.
Bushfire Prone Area
No

While not a high-risk area, residents should still be aware of bushfire safety during the fire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Shepparton experiences several days above 35 degrees Celsius each summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
180 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1974
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Goulburn River inundated large parts of Shepparton.

Source
1993
floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Goulburn River affected residential and commercial areas.

Source
2010
floodMajor

Widespread flooding across the Goulburn Valley, including Shepparton, caused significant damage.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and significant health impacts in Shepparton.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood7.07.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire3.03.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat7.07.6(+0.6)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Shepparton is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and drainage infrastructure to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation to reduce the impact of droughts and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Community Awareness

Near-term

Educate the community about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Shepparton's Climate Risk Profile

Shepparton, located in the Goulburn Valley region of Victoria, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially in the form of increased flooding and heatwaves. The Goulburn River, which runs through the region, poses a significant flood risk, and this risk is expected to worsen with more intense rainfall events.

Heatwaves are also a major concern for Shepparton. The region already experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events. This can have serious health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations.

While bushfire risk is lower compared to other parts of Victoria, it is still a factor to consider, especially in the surrounding agricultural areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the risk of bushfires in the future.

Coastal risks are not a concern for Shepparton due to its inland location. However, the community needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of flooding and heatwaves, such as improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heat action plans, and raising community awareness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Greater Shepparton City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Shepparton?

The main climate change risks for Shepparton are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a potential increase in bushfire risk.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Greater Shepparton City Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to address the risks posed by climate change.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can take steps to protect your property from flooding by raising the foundation, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Shepparton?

You can find more information about climate change in Shepparton on the Greater Shepparton City Council website and the Victorian government's climate change website.

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