Climate Risk Assessment: Smoko, VIC

Smoko, Victoria· Alpine

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Smoko, Victoria, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.8

Heat

4.2

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Smoko

increasing

Flood

45/100

Smoko faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Buffalo River. Local rainfall intensity and catchment saturation influence flood potential.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Catchment saturation

increasing

Bushfire

68/100

Smoko is located in a bushfire-prone area, with significant bushland surrounding the town. Dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

42/100

Smoko experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Smoko is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Smoko

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

42/100

Smoko experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.6

2050

5.1

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Smoko faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Buffalo River. Local rainfall intensity and catchment saturation influence flood potential.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Catchment saturation
·Riverine overflow

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Smoko is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

Smoko is located in a bushfire-prone area, with significant bushland surrounding the town. Dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
3.Obtain comprehensive insurance coverage.
4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Buffalo River
Elevation Range: 300-350m
Flood Zone: Areas near the Buffalo River are designated as flood zones.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to Mount Buffalo National Park
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Smoko, causing property damage and road closures.

Source

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Buffalo River to flood, affecting low-lying areas in Smoko.

Source

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, including Smoko, leading to health concerns and increased fire risk.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.2(+0.7)
bushfire	68	7.4(+0.6)	7.8(+1.0)
heat	42	4.6(+0.4)	5.1(+0.9)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Smoko is projected to experience increased bushfire risk and more frequent flooding events due to climate change.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire, including designated escape routes and emergency supplies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Insulation

Near-term

Enhance your home's insulation to reduce energy consumption and maintain a comfortable indoor temperature during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Long-term

Collect rainwater for non-potable uses, such as gardening and toilet flushing, to reduce reliance on mains water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Fire Brigade

Immediate

Volunteer with or donate to the local Country Fire Authority (CFA) to support their efforts in preventing and fighting bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Smoko's Climate Risk Profile

Smoko, located in the Alpine region of Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, driven by hotter, drier conditions, and flooding from the Buffalo River due to more intense rainfall events.

The bushfire risk is significant due to the extensive surrounding bushland. Higher temperatures and prolonged dry periods increase the likelihood of fires, threatening both property and lives. Residents need to maintain firebreaks and have evacuation plans in place.

Flooding is another concern, with the Buffalo River prone to overflowing during heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, leading to more frequent and severe flooding. Infrastructure and homes near the river are particularly at risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Planning for cooler spaces and staying hydrated are important adaptation measures.

While Smoko is not directly affected by coastal risks, the broader regional economy could be impacted by climate change effects on coastal areas, affecting tourism and agriculture.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Alpine Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Smoko?

The primary risks are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, all of which are expected to become more frequent and severe due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and develop a bushfire survival plan. Ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in a cool environment, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

The Alpine Shire Council provides flood maps and information on their website. You can also contact the council directly for assistance.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Alpine Shire Council has a climate strategy in place that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Details can be found on their website.