Climate Risk Profile: Somerville, VIC

Somerville, Victoria· Mornington Peninsula· 3912

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Somerville is a suburb in Victoria that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Somerville

increasing

Flood

60/100

Somerville faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

40/100

Somerville has a relatively low bushfire risk due to the cleared land surrounding the residential areas. However, nearby bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

70/100

Somerville is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Somerville faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Port Phillip Bay. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Somerville

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Somerville faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Somerville faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Port Phillip Bay. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Somerville has a relatively low bushfire risk due to the cleared land surrounding the residential areas. However, nearby bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation
·Extreme weather events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price impacts.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Emu Plains Drainage
Elevation Range: 5-20m
Flood Zone: Areas near Emu Plains Drainage are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 2km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 3 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying areas may be exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Some coastal areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting some properties in Somerville.

Source

2009

heatwaveMajor

The Black Saturday heatwave caused extreme temperatures and increased bushfire risk.

Source

2017

stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in the area.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Somerville is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and flooding posing the greatest challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Implement strategies to reduce the urban heat island effect and protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement measures to protect against coastal erosion and inundation, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Community Awareness

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and how to prepare for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Somerville's Climate Risk Profile

Somerville, located on the Mornington Peninsula, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising sea levels are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding events, potentially impacting homes and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and severe, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban environment can amplify the effects of heat, making it essential to implement strategies to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and storm surges, also pose a threat to Somerville. Low-lying coastal areas are at risk of inundation and erosion, which could damage property and infrastructure.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to the changing climate, and building community resilience. This includes investing in flood defenses, improving building design to withstand extreme weather, and promoting community awareness and preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Somerville?

Somerville faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Mornington Peninsula Shire has a climate strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to the changing climate.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves?

Stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Somerville?

Check the Mornington Peninsula Shire website for flood maps and information.

How will climate change affect property values in Somerville?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price impacts due to climate change.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Somerville, use our analysis tool.

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