Summerlands Climate Risk Profile

Summerlands, Victoria· Bass Coast Shire Council· 3944
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Summerlands faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant threats from bushfire and coastal hazards. While heatwaves are a growing concern, flood risk is moderate. Proactive adaptation is crucial to mitigate future impacts.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Summerlands

increasing

Flood

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waterways and potential for storm surge inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

High bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and proximity to coastal heathlands.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of hot days
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Medium heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect (limited)
increasing

Coastal

70/100

High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to sea level rise and storm surges.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased wave energy
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Summerlands

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Medium heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect (limited)
  • ·Increased heatwave duration

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waterways and potential for storm surge inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to sea level rise and storm surges.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased wave energy
  • ·Coastal development

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

High bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and proximity to coastal heathlands.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of hot days
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums and potential for reduced cover in high-risk zones.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in highly exposed areas, particularly coastal frontages.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check current and future flood risk maps.
  • 2.Review bushfire attack level (BAL) rating.
  • 3.Assess proximity to coastal erosion zones.
  • 4.Investigate local emergency management plans.
  • 5.Consider building materials and design for resilience.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Bass River (indirectly via coastal influence)
Elevation Range
0-20m above sea level
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation zones, low-lying areas

Flood risk is primarily driven by coastal storm surges and sea level rise, rather than riverine flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to coastal heathlands and pockets of native bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The vegetation types present are highly flammable, especially during dry periods.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
25.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
4 days

Summer temperatures can regularly exceed 30°C, with heatwave events becoming more common.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
High

Historical Climate Events

1998
bushfireMajor

Significant bushfires impacted areas near Phillip Island and the Bass Coast, including regions adjacent to Summerlands, due to dry conditions and strong winds.

Source
2011
stormModerate

Severe weather event caused widespread power outages and minor property damage across Gippsland and the Bass Coast region, including Summerlands.

Source
2016
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, with temperatures soaring across the state, including the Bass Coast region, leading to increased health risks.

Source
2021
coastalModerate

King tides combined with storm surges caused minor coastal inundation and erosion along parts of the Bass Coast, impacting areas near Summerlands.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.3(+0.3)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)7.2(+1.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.3(+1.3)
coastal707.6(+0.6)8.5(+1.5)

By 2030, Summerlands is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven by rising temperatures and more intense coastal events. Bushfire risk will also see a noticeable uptick.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop and implement a Coastal Adaptation Plan

Near-term

Undertake a comprehensive assessment of coastal erosion and inundation risks, and develop strategies including potential retreat, managed realignment, or hard/soft engineering solutions.

Est. cost: $50,000 - $200,000 (for planning)

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness and Response

Immediate

Strengthen fuel management programs in surrounding bushland, improve community education on fire safety, and ensure adequate emergency response resources are available.

Est. cost: $20,000 - $100,000 (annual)

Learn more

Implement Urban Greening and Water Sensitive Design

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover in public spaces and encourage water-sensitive urban design (WSUD) to mitigate heat island effects and manage stormwater runoff.

Est. cost: $10,000 - $50,000 (per project)

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Assess and upgrade stormwater drainage systems to cope with increased rainfall intensity and reduce localised flooding during extreme weather events.

Est. cost: $100,000 - $1,000,000+

Learn more

Promote Heatwave Action Plans

Near-term

Develop and disseminate heatwave action plans for vulnerable residents and community facilities, including identifying cooling centres and public health advice.

Est. cost: $5,000 - $20,000

Learn more

About Summerlands's Climate Risk Profile

Summerlands, located within the Bass Coast Shire, presents a complex climate risk profile. The suburb is particularly vulnerable to bushfire, with surrounding vegetation and proximity to coastal heathlands posing a significant threat. This risk is projected to increase due to hotter, drier conditions.

Coastal hazards are another major concern for Summerlands. The suburb's location makes it susceptible to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. These factors contribute to a high risk of inundation and land loss along the coastline, with projections indicating a worsening situation in the coming decades.

While the immediate flood risk from rivers or creeks is moderate, the combination of coastal inundation and intense rainfall events can exacerbate flooding in low-lying areas. Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to public health and infrastructure, although the urban heat island effect is less pronounced than in major metropolitan areas.

Adaptation strategies are essential for Summerlands to build resilience. This includes robust bushfire preparedness, effective coastal management plans, and measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat. Community engagement and awareness are key to ensuring residents are informed and prepared for the evolving climate challenges.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · Victorian State Government · Bass Coast Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary flood risk for Summerlands?

The primary flood risk for Summerlands is coastal inundation due to storm surges and sea level rise, rather than riverine flooding.

How close is Summerlands to significant bushland areas?

Summerlands is adjacent to coastal heathlands and pockets of native bushland, placing it within a bushfire-prone area.

Are property values in Summerlands likely to be affected by climate change?

Properties in highly exposed areas, particularly those with coastal frontages or in high bushfire risk zones, may face negative impacts on their value due to climate change risks.

What measures can homeowners take to prepare for bushfires in Summerlands?

Homeowners should maintain defensible space around their properties, have a bushfire survival plan, and ensure their homes meet relevant building standards for bushfire-prone areas.

What is the projected increase in extreme heat days for Summerlands by 2050?

By 2050, under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), Summerlands is projected to experience a significant increase in extreme heat days, with heatwave events becoming more frequent and dangerous.

Does Summerlands have specific coastal management plans in place?

The Bass Coast Shire Council is responsible for coastal management. Residents should consult the council's website for current plans and strategies related to coastal erosion and inundation.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections