Climate Risk in Sunbury, VIC

Sunbury, Victoria· Hume· 3429
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Sunbury faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of heatwaves and rainfall.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Sunbury is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Sunbury faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Jackson's Creek and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Creek overflow

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Sunbury is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Sunbury has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding or bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Jackson's Creek
Elevation Range
150-250m
Flood Zone
Areas near Jackson's Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that areas close to Jackson's Creek have experienced flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
500m
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some parts of Sunbury are designated as bushfire-prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Sunbury experiences several days above 35°C during summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1974
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the region, impacting areas along Jackson's Creek.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and significant health impacts.

Source
2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Sunbury.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Sunbury and surrounding areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.7(+0.2)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire4.04.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat6.06.5(+0.5)7.2(+1.2)
coastal1.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Sunbury is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers along Jackson's Creek.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Conduct controlled burns and maintain firebreaks in bushfire-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Sunbury's Climate Risk Profile

Sunbury, located in Victoria, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to Jackson's Creek, and the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the surrounding grasslands and bushland.

Flooding events are expected to become more severe as climate change leads to increased rainfall intensity. This could impact residential areas and infrastructure near the creek. Heatwaves pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

The bushfire risk is influenced by dry vegetation and high temperatures during the summer months. While not as immediate a threat as flooding or heatwaves, it remains a concern that requires ongoing vigilance and mitigation efforts.

Overall, Sunbury needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This includes improving flood defenses, implementing heatwave management plans, and managing bushfire risks through controlled burns and community education.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Sunbury?

The main climate risks in Sunbury are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Flooding is a concern due to the proximity of Jackson's Creek, while heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense. Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding grasslands and bushland.

How is climate change expected to impact Sunbury?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and rainfall, leading to more severe flooding events. Bushfire risk may also increase due to drier conditions.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Sunbury?

During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing window coverings to reduce heat entering your home.

What should I do during a flood in Sunbury?

During a flood, move to higher ground and avoid driving or walking through floodwaters. Follow the instructions of emergency services and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Sunbury?

Clear vegetation around your property, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan. Ensure your home is well-maintained and that you have adequate insurance coverage.

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