Climate Risk in Tatura, VIC

Tatura, Victoria· Greater Shepparton· 3616

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Tatura faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tatura

increasing

Flood

65/100

Tatura faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Goulburn River and surrounding waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding

increasing

Bushfire

30/100

Tatura has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Victoria. However, dry conditions and increasing temperatures can elevate the risk during peak fire seasons.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures

increasing

Heat

60/100

Tatura is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Tatura is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tatura

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Tatura is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Tatura is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Tatura has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Victoria. However, dry conditions and increasing temperatures can elevate the risk during peak fire seasons.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to the increased risk of flooding and other extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance coverage for climate-related risks.
4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Goulburn River
Elevation Range: 110-120m
Flood Zone: Areas near the Goulburn River are designated as flood zones.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Approximately 5km to the nearest significant bushland area.
Planning Overlay: No specific bushfire overlay applies to the town center, but areas to the north and east may be subject to bushfire risk.
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 180 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable.
Erosion Risk: Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Goulburn River basin, impacting Tatura and surrounding areas.

Source

2009

heatwaveMajor

The Black Saturday heatwave brought record-breaking temperatures to Victoria, including Tatura, causing widespread health impacts.

Source

1993

floodModerate

Widespread flooding affected many parts of Victoria, including areas around Tatura.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.8(+0.8)	7.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Tatura is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by more frequent and intense heatwaves and an increased risk of flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Emergency Preparedness

Near-term

Strengthen emergency response capabilities to deal with extreme weather events, including training and equipment.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the impact of droughts and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tatura's Climate Risk Profile

Tatura, located in central Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks are associated with flooding from the Goulburn River and its tributaries, as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern for Tatura, with potential for damage to property and infrastructure. The Goulburn River, which runs nearby, can overflow during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense in Tatura. Rising temperatures pose a health risk, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

While Tatura is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to agriculture and supply chains, could indirectly affect the community. It is important for residents and local authorities to take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions.

Mitigation efforts, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, are also crucial to slowing down the pace of climate change and reducing the severity of its impacts on Tatura.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Greater Shepparton City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Tatura?

The main climate risks facing Tatura are flooding and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Tatura?

You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, having an emergency plan, and ensuring your property is adequately insured.

What should I do during a heatwave in Tatura?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is Tatura at risk of bushfires?

While Tatura is not at high risk of bushfires, it is still important to be aware of the risk and take precautions during the fire season.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Tatura?

The Greater Shepparton City Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.