Thomson Climate Risk Profile

Thomson, Victoria· City of Greater Geelong· 3215
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Thomson, VIC, faces a moderate overall climate risk, with significant concerns around heatwaves and a notable flood risk due to its proximity to the Barwon River. While bushfire and coastal risks are low, the suburb's susceptibility to extreme heat events is projected to increase.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Thomson

increasing

Flood

60/100

Thomson faces a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Barwon River and potential for flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire is relatively low, with limited direct bushland interface within the suburb itself.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to peri-urban areas
  • ·Vegetation management
increasing

Heat

70/100

Thomson is highly susceptible to heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Thomson is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal erosion or sea-level rise.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Thomson

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Thomson is highly susceptible to heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Reduced cooling breezes

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Thomson faces a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Barwon River and potential for flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urbanisation

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Thomson is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal erosion or sea-level rise.

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire is relatively low, with limited direct bushland interface within the suburb itself.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to peri-urban areas
  • ·Vegetation management

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums expected due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Potential negative impact on properties in high-risk flood zones; heat resilience may become a selling point.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps for specific property risk.
  • 2.Assess property's heat resilience (insulation, shading, cooling).
  • 3.Review insurance policy details and costs.
  • 4.Understand local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Barwon River
Elevation Range
2-15m AHD
Flood Zone
Moderate to High in areas adjacent to Barwon River

The Thomson and Kardinia Flood Study highlights specific areas within Thomson that are susceptible to inundation from the Barwon River and local drainage systems.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Variable, up to 1.5km to significant bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Significant Landscape Overlay (SLO) in surrounding areas, but not directly within most residential zones of Thomson.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While not a high-risk bushfire area, properties on the periphery may require specific fire preparedness measures.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
12 days

Projected to increase significantly, with more frequent days over 40°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
8 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

1971
floodMajor

Significant flooding occurred along the Barwon River, impacting areas downstream including parts of Thomson.

Source
2009
heatwaveCatastrophic

Victoria experienced a severe heatwave, with record-breaking temperatures causing widespread health impacts and infrastructure strain. Thomson would have been affected.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Minor to moderate flooding of the Barwon River impacted low-lying areas, with potential effects on properties near the river in Thomson.

Source
2016
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged period of extreme heat affected Victoria, including the Geelong region, leading to increased demand on power grids and health services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.5(+0.5)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.2(+0.2)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Thomson is projected to experience a noticeable increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves. Flood risk will see a slight increase due to more extreme rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Enhance Urban Green Infrastructure

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defences and Drainage

Immediate

Invest in upgrading and maintaining flood levees, stormwater drainage systems, and permeable surfaces to better manage increased rainfall intensity.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Promote Heat-Resilient Building Design

Near-term

Encourage or mandate building designs that incorporate passive cooling, high-performance insulation, and reflective roofing materials.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Develop Community Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Establish clear communication channels and designated cooling centres for vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Review and Update Emergency Management Plans

Near-term

Ensure local emergency services and council plans adequately address the projected increases in flood and heat risks.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

About Thomson's Climate Risk Profile

Thomson, a suburb within the City of Greater Geelong, presents a mixed climate risk profile for its residents. The most pressing concern is the increasing threat of extreme heat. With a projected rise in average temperatures and a higher frequency of heatwave days, the urban environment of Thomson is likely to exacerbate the urban heat island effect, leading to significant health and infrastructure challenges. This susceptibility is compounded by the suburb's location within Victoria, a state already experiencing the impacts of a warming climate.

Flood risk is another significant factor for Thomson. Its geographical position near the Barwon River means that periods of intense rainfall or riverine flooding can pose a threat to properties and infrastructure. While the immediate risk might be moderate, climate change projections indicate an increase in the intensity of rainfall events, which could elevate the severity and frequency of flooding in low-lying areas of the suburb. Understanding local topography and drainage patterns is crucial for effective mitigation.

In contrast, the risks associated with bushfires and coastal impacts are considerably lower for Thomson. The suburb is not directly adjacent to large areas of dense bushland, and its inland location shields it from the direct effects of sea-level rise and coastal erosion. However, it's important to note that even areas with low direct bushfire risk can be affected by smoke or emergency service responses to nearby incidents.

Overall, Thomson's climate resilience strategy should prioritise adaptation measures for heat and flood risks. This includes enhancing green infrastructure, improving building resilience to heat, and ensuring robust flood management systems are in place and maintained. Community awareness and preparedness are also vital components in mitigating the impacts of these climate hazards.

Data sources: CSIRO · BOM · City of Greater Geelong Council · CFA Victoria · Emergency Management Victoria · Victorian State Government

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main flood risk for Thomson residents?

The primary flood risk in Thomson stems from potential inundation from the Barwon River, particularly in areas close to its banks, and from localised flash flooding due to intense rainfall overwhelming drainage systems.

How will climate change affect heat in Thomson?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Thomson, leading to more days over 35°C and exacerbating the urban heat island effect, making the suburb hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Is Thomson prone to bushfires?

Thomson itself has a relatively low direct bushfire risk due to limited adjacent bushland. However, properties on the outskirts may be closer to vegetated areas, and the broader region is considered bushfire-prone.

What can I do to prepare my home for heatwaves in Thomson?

Consider improving insulation, installing efficient cooling systems, planting shade trees, using reflective window coverings, and ensuring adequate ventilation. Staying hydrated and checking on neighbours is also crucial.

Does Thomson face risks from sea-level rise?

No, Thomson is located inland and does not face direct risks from sea-level rise or coastal erosion. Its climate risks are primarily related to flooding and heat.

Where can I find the official flood map for Thomson?

The City of Greater Geelong provides flood overlay maps on their planning scheme website, which can help identify specific areas within Thomson that are at higher risk of inundation.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections