Climate Risk in Torquay, VIC

Torquay, Victoria· Surf Coast· 3228
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Torquay faces a medium risk from climate change impacts. The primary risks are bushfire, coastal hazards, heatwaves and flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Torquay

increasing

Flood

45/100

Torquay faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and coastal inundation. The proximity to the coast and the presence of waterways increase the potential for flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Torquay has a notable bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and nearby bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Torquay is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Torquay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. The coastline is vulnerable to storm surges and rising sea levels.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Torquay

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Torquay is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Torquay faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and coastal inundation. The proximity to the coast and the presence of waterways increase the potential for flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Torquay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. The coastline is vulnerable to storm surges and rising sea levels.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Torquay has a notable bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and nearby bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase in high-risk areas.

Price Impact

Properties in vulnerable locations may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal hazards.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Spring Creek
Elevation Range
0-50m
Flood Zone
Land subject to inundation overlay

Areas near Spring Creek are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to town
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and northern edges of Torquay are designated as bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are increasing, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along exposed beaches.

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfire near Bells Beach threatened properties in Torquay.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Torquay.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents.

Source
2023
coastalMinor

High tides and storm surge caused minor coastal erosion along Torquay beach.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.7(+0.7)
coastal535.6(+0.3)5.9(+0.6)

By 2030, Torquay is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks. Coastal flooding will become more frequent.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a comprehensive bushfire management plan

Immediate

Implement measures to reduce fuel loads, improve firebreaks, and educate residents about bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Invest in coastal protection measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls, restore dunes, and implement managed retreat strategies to protect coastal properties and infrastructure.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave preparedness strategies

Immediate

Establish cooling centers, provide assistance to vulnerable residents, and promote water conservation.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents and businesses to reduce water consumption through education and incentives.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Torquay's Climate Risk Profile

Torquay, a coastal town in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is experiencing rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels, all of which contribute to increased risks from various hazards.

Bushfire risk is a significant concern for Torquay. The surrounding grasslands and bushland create a high fuel load, and hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of fires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfires.

Coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion, also pose a threat to Torquay. The coastline is vulnerable to storm surges and rising sea levels, which can inundate low-lying areas and damage infrastructure. Erosion is also a concern, as it can undermine coastal properties and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Torquay, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Rising temperatures can also strain infrastructure, such as power grids and transportation systems.

Flooding is another risk for Torquay, particularly from heavy rainfall events and coastal inundation. The proximity to the coast and the presence of waterways increase the potential for flooding, which can damage properties and disrupt transportation.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · Surf Coast Shire Council · Victorian State Government

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Torquay?

The main climate change risks in Torquay are bushfires, coastal hazards (sea level rise and erosion), heatwaves, and flooding.

How is the Surf Coast Shire Council addressing climate change?

The Surf Coast Shire Council has developed a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Torquay?

You can prepare for bushfires by creating a bushfire survival plan, clearing vegetation around your home, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

How will sea level rise affect Torquay?

Sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying coastal areas, increase coastal erosion, and increase the risk of storm surges in Torquay.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Torquay?

You can find information about flood risks in Torquay on the Surf Coast Shire Council website, including flood maps and information about flood overlays.

What kind of financial assistance is available for climate resilience?

Contact the Surf Coast Shire Council to inquire about available grants and programs for climate resilience and adaptation measures.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections