Climate Risk Profile: Tourello, VIC

Tourello, Victoria· Hepburn
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Tourello faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tourello

increasing

Flood

45/100

Tourello faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local creek overflow
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Tourello has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Tourello is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Tourello is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tourello

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Tourello is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Tourello faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local creek overflow
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.8

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Tourello is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Tourello has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider heatwave resilience

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
Variable
Flood Zone
Variable

Local creeks are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood455.0(+0.5)5.8(+1.3)
bushfire606.5(+0.5)7.2(+1.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Tourello is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to mitigate flood risks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Planning

Immediate

Develop and implement bushfire preparedness plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Establish a heatwave early warning system to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs on climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tourello's Climate Risk Profile

Tourello, Victoria, is a rural locality that faces increasing climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are the rising risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Flooding is a moderate risk due to heavy rainfall and local creek systems. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is high due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk, making bushfires more frequent and intense. Preparedness and awareness are crucial for residents.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with projections indicating more frequent and intense heat events. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Taking steps to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves is essential.

While Tourello is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the overall impact of climate change necessitates proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Tourello?

The main climate risks in Tourello are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

How is climate change expected to impact Tourello?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves in Tourello.

What can residents do to prepare for climate risks?

Residents can prepare by developing emergency plans, improving home resilience, and staying informed about weather warnings.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Hepburn Shire Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Tourello?

You can find more information on the Hepburn Shire Council website and the websites of state emergency services.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections