Climate Risk in Upper Gundowring, VIC

Upper Gundowring, Victoria· Towong Shire· 3701
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Gundowring faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heat risk due to climate change. The suburb is relatively far from the coast, resulting in low coastal risk. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
5.8
Heat
4.2
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Gundowring

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Gundowring faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

58/100

Upper Gundowring has a moderate risk of bushfire due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

42/100

Upper Gundowring experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upper Gundowring is located inland and has a very low risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Gundowring

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

42/100

Upper Gundowring experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Gundowring faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upper Gundowring is located inland and has a very low risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

58/100

Upper Gundowring has a moderate risk of bushfire due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.7

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mitta Mitta River
Elevation Range
250-350m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Mitta Mitta River are prone to flooding.

Local council provides flood maps and information on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check the CFA website for fire restrictions and warnings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Plan ahead for heatwaves and ensure adequate hydration.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
350 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Mitta Mitta River affected properties in Upper Gundowring.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage and loss of life.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and required residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding in low-lying areas of Upper Gundowring.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire586.2(+0.4)6.5(+0.7)
heat424.4(+0.2)4.6(+0.4)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Upper Gundowring is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risks due to more extreme weather events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Programs

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire preparedness and evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Sustainable Land Management

Long-term

Promote sustainable land management practices to reduce erosion and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Upper Gundowring's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Gundowring, located in northeastern Victoria, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding and bushfires, driven by increasing rainfall intensity and hotter, drier conditions respectively. The risk of heatwaves is also increasing, posing a threat to vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the proximity of waterways and the potential for heavy rainfall events. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, leading to higher flood risk. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern, particularly during the summer months. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and hot, dry conditions can quickly escalate the risk. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to the elderly, children, and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and staying in air-conditioned environments.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the overall impact of climate change on Upper Gundowring is significant. Residents and local authorities need to take proactive measures to adapt to these changes and mitigate the risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Upper Gundowring?

The main climate risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Upper Gundowring?

Check flood maps, have an evacuation plan, and ensure your property is adequately insured.

What should I do during a bushfire?

Stay informed about fire warnings, prepare your property, and be ready to evacuate if necessary.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Drink plenty of water, stay in air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Upper Gundowring?

Consult the Towong Shire Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the CSIRO for the latest information and resources.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections