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Climate Risk in Upwey, VIC

Upwey, Victoria· Yarra Ranges· 3158
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Upwey is a suburb in the Dandenong Ranges with a medium overall climate risk. The primary risks are bushfire and heatwaves, with a moderate risk of flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upwey

increasing

Flood

40/100

Upwey has a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in the Dandenong Ranges and proximity to creeks and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Upwey faces a high risk of bushfire due to its location within the Dandenong Ranges, surrounded by dense vegetation. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Upwey experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upwey has a very low risk of coastal hazards due to its distance from the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upwey

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Upwey experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Upwey has a moderate risk of flooding due to its location in the Dandenong Ranges and proximity to creeks and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upwey has a very low risk of coastal hazards due to its distance from the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Upwey faces a high risk of bushfire due to its location within the Dandenong Ranges, surrounded by dense vegetation. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
  • 2.Obtain a building inspection report.
  • 3.Review insurance options.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Monbulk Creek
Elevation Range
180-350m
Flood Zone
Areas near Monbulk Creek are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the creek. Council provides flood mapping and advice.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO)
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Upwey is located in a designated bushfire prone area. Residents should maintain their properties and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperature is increasing. Heat stress events are becoming more frequent.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
45 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1997
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Upwey, impacting properties along Monbulk Creek.

Source
1983
bushfireMajor

The Ash Wednesday bushfires impacted the Dandenong Ranges, including Upwey, causing significant property damage.

Source
2009
bushfireModerate

The Black Saturday bushfires resulted in increased fire danger in the Dandenong Ranges, with Upwey residents on high alert.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2019 resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents in Upwey.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Upwey is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire, including designated meeting points and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Insulation

Near-term

Upgrade your home's insulation to reduce energy consumption and improve thermal comfort during heatwaves and cold snaps.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install a Water Tank

Near-term

Install a rainwater tank to collect and store water for non-potable uses, reducing reliance on mains water during droughts and conserving water resources.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Emergency Services

Long-term

Volunteer with local emergency services, such as the CFA and SES, to support community resilience and preparedness.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Upwey's Climate Risk Profile

Upwey, nestled in the Dandenong Ranges, faces increasing climate-related challenges. The suburb's location surrounded by dense bushland elevates the risk of bushfires, particularly during hot and dry summer months. Climate change projections indicate a likely increase in the frequency and intensity of bushfire events, posing a significant threat to properties and residents.

Flooding is another concern for Upwey, with local creeks and waterways prone to overflowing during periods of heavy rainfall. Urban development and changes in land use can exacerbate flood risks by increasing runoff and reducing natural drainage. Climate change is expected to further intensify rainfall events, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense in Upwey, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Rising average temperatures and prolonged periods of extreme heat can strain infrastructure and increase energy demand.

While Upwey is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, can still affect the suburb. Residents and property owners should take proactive steps to mitigate these risks and adapt to a changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV · SES

Local Government Resources

Yarra Ranges Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Upwey?

The main climate risks in Upwey are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

You can prepare your property by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining gutters, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Upwey?

You can find information about flood risks on the Yarra Ranges Council website and the SES website.

How is the Yarra Ranges Council addressing climate change?

The Yarra Ranges Council has a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Upwey, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Upwey →

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