Climate Risk in Wantirna, Victoria

Wantirna, Victoria· Knox· 3152
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Wantirna faces moderate climate risks, primarily from heatwaves and flooding. The suburb's location and urban development contribute to these vulnerabilities. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heat events and potential flood risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
3.8
Heat
6.2
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Wantirna

increasing

Flood

45/100

Wantirna faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. Development and urbanization have increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

38/100

The bushfire risk in Wantirna is moderate due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

62/100

Wantirna is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Wantirna is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Wantirna

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

62/100

Wantirna is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Wantirna faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. Development and urbanization have increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Wantirna is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

38/100

The bushfire risk in Wantirna is moderate due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.0

2050

4.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider bushfire risk if near bushland.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Dandenong Creek
Elevation Range
50-80m
Flood Zone
Areas along Dandenong Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Local drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle increasingly intense rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to the Dandenong Ranges foothills.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO) may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3.5 days

The urban heat island effect can increase temperatures in built-up areas.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
35 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Wantirna, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand on emergency services.

Source
1997
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to trees and power lines in Wantirna.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.3(+0.8)
bushfire384.0(+0.2)4.2(+0.4)
heat627.2(+1.0)8.7(+2.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Wantirna is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, with a slight increase in flood risk. Bushfire risk remains relatively stable. Coastal risks remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade and expand stormwater drainage infrastructure to mitigate flood risks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote cool roofs and green spaces

Near-term

Encourage the use of cool roofs and expand green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness programs

Long-term

Implement community education programs on bushfire preparedness and property maintenance.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Wantirna's Climate Risk Profile

Wantirna, located in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding due to heavy rainfall, and a moderate bushfire risk due to proximity to bushland.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of Wantirna residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Urban development and the urban heat island effect exacerbate this risk.

Flooding is another concern, with heavy rainfall events leading to local creek overflows and stormwater drainage issues. Development has increased the amount of impervious surfaces, leading to increased runoff and a higher risk of flooding.

While the coastal risk is low, the suburb needs to focus on mitigating heat and flood risks. Residents should stay informed about emergency warnings and take steps to prepare their homes and families for extreme weather events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Wantirna?

The main risks are increased heatwaves, flooding from heavy rainfall, and a moderate bushfire risk.

How can I prepare my home for heatwaves?

Install insulation, use window coverings, and consider air conditioning. Stay hydrated and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What should I do during a flood?

Stay informed about warnings, move valuables to higher ground, and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

How can I reduce my property's bushfire risk?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation, cleaning gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Knox?

Visit the Knox City Council website for information on climate strategies and adaptation plans.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections